000 AXNT20 KNHC 301805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast late Sunday into Monday bringing strong to gale force winds on either side of the front N of 30 N between 71W-73W. Gale Warning is forecast in the western Atlantic with winds 30 to 35 kts with seas 11 to 15 feet. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01N-08N between 22W-48W. Near Africa, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-07N between 09W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin with fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds across the whole area. The high pressure will shift east of the area today ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast tonight. The front will reach from near Tampa Florida to Tampico Mexico by Sun night, followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the northeast Gulf. The front will sweep south of the southeast Gulf through Mon, as it stalls and dissipate over the southwest Gulf. High pressure will build over the central Gulf behind the front through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front extends from 18N67W north of the Mona Passage across Dominican Republic into the Central Caribbean near 17N71W, then front decays to near 14N77W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the vicinity of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. To the south, the presence of the EPAC monsoon trough is enhancing scattered showers along 11N between 72W-80W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds east of 70W, while moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted west of 70W. A cold front is stalling and weakening from the Mona Passage to the west central Caribbean and will gradually dissipate through Sun night. High pressure building north of the area behind the front will allow moderate to occasionally fresh northeasterly winds across most of the Caribbean through late today, as large northerly swell reaches the Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will veer more easterly and diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N45W to 25N49W to 18N67W north of Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh winds noted in scatterometer data behind the front, mainly between 50W-72W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the front mainly north of 25N between 37W-46W. South of 25N, scattered showers and tstorms are present along the boundary. The forecast for tonight has significant wave heights in excess of 12 ft north of 23N between 43W-73W, in excess of 16 ft tonight north of 26N between 48W-69W, due mostly to large NW to N swell. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. A cold front is stalling from north of the Leeward Islands to the Mona passage, and will dissipate through Sun night. Large, long- period northerly swell follows the front over open waters. High pressure will build behind the front along 28N, and shift east of the area Sun ahead of another cold front moving off northeast Florida coast late Sun. Strong to gale force winds are expected on either side of this front well to the northeast of the Bahamas early next week. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER