000 AXNT20 KNHC 300526 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1226 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 07N11W to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N53W. Scattered showers are noted along and north of the ITCZ between 30W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends from western Cuba near 22N84W to 29N93W. No significant showers are occurring with the front. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin. The stationary front will gradually dissipate tonight. High pressure will build from the Carolinas across the eastern Gulf through Sat, allowing fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast late Sat, reach from near Tampa Florida to Tampico Mexico by Sun night, followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the northeast Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from 20N77W to 22N84W. Ahead of the front, scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. To the south, the presence of the EPAC monsoon trough is enhancing scattered showers along 11N between 73W-80W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds east of 70W, while moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted west of 70W. The front will stall from north of Jamaica, across Hispaniola, and just northwest of Puerto Rico this weekend, before dissipating. High pressure building north of the area behind the front will allow moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds across most of the Caribbean through late Sat, as long period northerly swell reaches the Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N48W to 23N61W to 20N74W. Fresh to strong winds noted in scatterometer data behind the front, mainly between 50W-72W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the front mainly north of 26N. The forecast for tonight has significant wave heights in excess of 12 ft north of 23N between 43W-73W, in excess of 16 ft tonight north of 26N between 48W-69W, due mostly to large N swell. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The cold front will move south and east of the region by Sat morning. Associated large northwest to north swell will spread across the waters east of the Bahamas through Sun evening before subsiding into Mon. A second cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast late Sun night. Strong to possibly gale force winds are expected on either side of this front northeast of the Bahamas early next week. $$ ERA