000 AXNT20 KNHC 291051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 551 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING... A cold front moving eastward across the Atlantic waters near 31N58W has minimal gale force winds north of 30N between 56W-60W. Seas are 12-16 ft. These gale force winds will continue through 30/0000 UTC. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 09N-15N, moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 12N over the SW Caribbean where the wave axis meets the east Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 05N30W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N-09N between 24N-41N. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 41W-58W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 29/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N84W to the NW Gulf near 29N93W, where it becomes stationary to W of Galveston Texas near 29N96W to a 1018 low W of Corpus Christi Texas near 28N98W. The stationary front continues southward to Tampico Mexico near 21N97W. Showers are over the W Gulf W of 94W. Latest ASCAT data depicts generally moderate breeze winds across most of the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico from 17N-20N between 94W-96W. The cold front will move across the eastern Gulf today as it dissipates over the western Gulf. High pressure will build from the Carolinas across the eastern Gulf through Sat, allowing fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast late Sat, reach from near Tampa Florida to Tampico Mexico by Sun night, briefly followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the northeast Gulf. The front will stall and dissipate from the northwest Caribbean to the southwest Gulf Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands and another is over the SW Caribbean. See above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 12N over the SW Caribbean mostly due to the east Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers are over the N Caribbean from 15N-20N and E of 82W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over W Cuba near 23N82W. upper level ridging is W of 70W. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean E of 70W. Strong subsidence is over most of the Caribbean except over the far SW Caribbean. A cold front will move across Cuba today before stalling and dissipating between Haiti and the Yucatan Channel tonight. High pressure building north of the area behind the front will allow moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds across most of the Caribbean through late Sat, as long period northerly swell reaches the Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. The winds diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel Tue, then stall over the northwest Caribbean by late Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above regarding the gale in the central Atlantic. As of 29/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N58W to 25N70W to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front N of 28N between 52W-58W. A 1020 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 30N26W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic along 47W N of 16N. Isolated moderate convection is from 23N-33N between 39W-48W. Another upper level trough is over the E Atlantic along 16W N of 18N producing scattered showers over the Canary Islands. The Atlantic cold front will quickly move across the western Atlantic through Fri. Strong to near gale force west to northwest winds following the front will shift east of the area late today. Associated large northwest to north swell will spread across the waters east of the Bahamas through Sun evening before subsiding into Mon. A second cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast late Sun night and quickly move across the area through Tue while weakening. Strong to possibly gale force winds are expected on either side of this front northeast of the Bahamas early next week. $$ Formosa