000 AXNT20 KNHC 290621 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING... A cold front moving eastward across the Atlantic waters near 31N64W has minimal gale force SW winds north of 30N and within 300 nm E of the front. Seas are 10-12 ft. These gale force winds will continue through 30/0000 UTC. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 09N-15N, moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 11N over the SW Caribbean where the wave axis meets the east Pacific monsoon trough. A Bay of Campeche tropical wave is along 96W from 22N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 17N-19N between 93W-96W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 05N30W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N-09N between 22N-43N. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-11N between 43W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche. See above. As of 29/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Miami Florida near 26N80W to Naples Florida near 26N82W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 27N86W, where it becomes stationary to a 1019 low W of Galveston Texas near 30N96W. The stationary front continues southward to 25N96W to Tampico Mexico near 21N97W. Showers are over the W Gulf W of 94W. Latest ASCAT data depicts generally moderate breeze winds across most of the Gulf. The cold front will reach the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida late tonight, while the remainder of the front will transition to a warm front and dissipate as it lifts back to the north through Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish across the area through Sat as weak ridging builds over the northern Gulf waters. A cold front will move across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night and across the remainder of the Gulf Mon and Mon night. It will be followed by mainly fresh northerly winds behind it, except for fresh to strong winds in the NE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands and another is over the SW Caribbean. See above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 11N over the SW Caribbean mostly due to the east Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers are over the N Caribbean from 15N-20N and E of 82W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over W Cuba near 23N82W. upper level ridging is W of 70W. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean E of 70W. Strong subsidence is over most of the Caribbean except over the far SW Caribbean. As a cold front advances across the western Atlantic through Tue night, the pressure gradient will respond by slackening over the Caribbean allowing for moderate to fresh trades. The trades in the western Caribbean, however, will become northerly, gentle to moderate Mon through Tue night, as the weakening southern extent of the cold front passes across that part of the Caribbean. Large north swell on Sat will begin impacting the offshore Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles and continue through Tue night while slowly subsiding. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above regarding the gale in the central Atlantic. As of 29/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N60W to 26N74W to Miami Florida near 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front N of 29N between 55W-60W. A 1011 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N52W. A surface trough extends from 30N51W to the low center to 18N58W. A 1019 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 27N35W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic along 47W N of 16N. Isolated moderate convection is from 23N-33N between 39W-48W. Another upper level trough is over the E Atlantic along 16W N of 18N producing scattered showers over the Canary Islands. The Atlantic cold front will quickly move across the western Atlantic through Fri. Strong to near gale force west to northwest winds will follow in behind the front. Associated large northwest to north swell will spread across the waters east of the Bahamas Fri through Sun evening and subside late Sun night into Mon. A second cold front will reach the far northwest waters on Sun night and quickly move across the area through Tue while weakening. Strong to possibly gale force winds are expected on either side of this front northeast of the Bahamas early next week. $$ Formosa