000 AXNT20 KNHC 282340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING... A cold front moving eastward across the Atlantic waters will bring minimal gale force winds to the area north of 30N between 50W-60W beginning at 29/0600 UTC. Seas will reach 12-19 ft. These gale force winds will continue through 29/1800 UTC. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57/58W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate showers are from 04N-09N between 52W-62W. Isolated showers are possible near the wave axis north of 12N. A west-central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79/80W from 09N-15N, moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of 10N where the wave axis meets the east Pacific monsoon trough. A tropical wave extends into the Bay of Campeche along 94W from 22N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen E of the wave axis over northern Guatemala and W of the wave axis near the stationary front from 19N-22N between 95W-97W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 04N37W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 25N-40N. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 05N-10N between 42W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Sarasota Florida to 28N89W, where it becomes stationary to a 1019 low near Galveston Texas. The stationary front continues from Galveston southward to 25N96W to south of Tampico and inland into Mexico. Showers are seen near the stationary front in the SW Gulf from 20N-23N between 95W-98W. Surface ridging extends across the eastern Gulf. Latest ASCAT data from midday Thursday depicts generally moderate winds across most of the Gulf. The cold front in the eastern Gulf will move across the SE Gulf tonight, while the remainder of the front will transition to a warm front and dissipate as it lifts back to the north through Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish across the area through Sat as weak ridging builds over the northern Gulf waters. A new cold front will move across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night and across the remainder of the Gulf Mon and Mon night. It will be followed by mainly fresh northerly winds behind it, except for fresh to strong winds in the NE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough from the central Atlantic extends into the southeastern Caribbean to northern Colombia. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea is under the influence of a mid-upper level ridge with dry air noted in GOES-16 water vapor channels. Isolated light showers are over portions of the northeast Caribbean, but the only significant convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean in association with the tropical wave along 80W and the east Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is SW of a line from 09N76.5W to 13.5N83.5W, including over Panama, Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. The ASCAT pass from late Thursday morning shows strong trades in the south-central Caribbean from 10N-15N between 73W-80W. A weaker pressure gradient through Mon will allow for diminishing trades to mainly moderate to fresh speeds over much of the basin. Large north swell on Sat will begin impacting the offshore Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles and continue through Tue night while slowly subsiding. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above regarding the developing gale in the central Atlantic. As of 28/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Bermuda to 29N72W to Stuart Florida. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front from 31N-32N between 59W-63W. An upper level trough extends from near 30N51W to 20N52W to 14N61W to northern Colombia. A surface trough extends from 31N45W to a 1013 mb low near 26N52W to 18N56W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 180 nm E of the surface trough axis. A 1018 mb high is near 26N35W. An upper-level low near 24N18W is inducing scattered showers across the Canary Islands, SW Morocco and northern Western Sahara. The west Atlantic cold front will quickly move across the western Atlantic through Fri. Strong to near gale force west to northwest winds will follow in behind the front. Associated large northwest to north swell will spread across the waters east of the Bahamas Fri through Sun evening and subside late Sun night into early Mon. By Friday night, significant wave heights of 12-18 ft will cover the area north of 25N between 50W-70W. Shortly after those swells subside, a second cold front will reach the far northwest waters on Sun night and quickly move across the area through Tue while weakening. Strong to possibly gale force winds are expected on either side of the front northeast of the Bahamas early next week. $$ Hagen