000 AXNT20 KNHC 281756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING... A cold front moving eastward across the Atlantic waters will bring minimal gale force winds 30.5N57.5W to 30.5N59W to 31N59.5W to 31N57.5W to 30.5N57.5W beginning 29/0600 UTC. Seas will reach 11-16 ft. These gale force winds will continue through 30/0600 UTC. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted along the wave axis. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 17N southward, moving W at 15 knots. No significant convection is noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave extends into the Bay of Campeche along 93W from 22N southward, moving W at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within 200 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 05N33W to the coast of northern Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 26N-39N. Isolated convection is seen along the ITCZ between 16W-18W in addition to 05N-10N between 44W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the coast of Florida near 29N83W to the central Atlantic near 29N89W. A 1018 mb low is off the middle Texas coast near 28N97W and a warm front extends eastward from the low to the central Gulf near 29N89W. A stationary front also extends south of the low to the coast of Mexico near 22N97W. Showers are seen along these boundaries. Surface ridging extends across the rest of the Gulf. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf with gentle winds in the western Gulf. The eastern portion of the front will move through the southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight. The rest of the front will continue to stay stalled and dissipate in the western Gulf of Mexico. The winds and seas will diminish in the Gulf on Friday and Saturday, as weak ridging builds in the north part of the Gulf. A new cold front will move across the N and central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, with enhanced NW to N winds building in behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough from the central Atlantic extends into the eastern Caribbean to northern Colombia. The NW Caribbean is under the influence of a upper level ridge. Scattered showers are moving across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico eastward throughout the Lesser Antilles. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection is seen in the SW Caribbean off the Panama and Costa Rica coastline, S of 11N between 80W-84W. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds N of Colombia, with fresh trades across the western and central basin. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the eastern Caribbean. A moderate pressure gradient south of the Bermuda High will be forcing strong across the S central Caribbean Sea, and to near the coast of Colombia for the rest of the morning hours. A large extratropical cyclone east of the mid-Atlantic states will reduce the gradient through Monday, weakening the NE tradewinds to fresh breezes or less across the Caribbean Sea. Large N swell on Saturday will begin impacting the offshore Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles and continue through at least Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above regarding the developing gale in the central Atlantic. A cold front is pushing across the western Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N77W and stretching westward to the coast of Florida near 29N81W. Showers are seen along this front. An upper level trough near 53W is stretching across the Atlantic to the eastern Caribbean. This upper level trough is inducing a 1014 mb surface low near 25N53W with a trough extending along the low from 19N56W to 31N44W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this system from 20N-31N between 40W-54W. Two more surface troughs are analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, one from 23N30W to 30N27W and the second from 21N21W to 26N24W. An upper level low SW of the Cabo Verde Islands are bringing showers across these islands in addition to the Western Sahara and southern Morocco. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds behind the cold front in the western Atlantic. Weakening high pressure across the area will shift eastward through today in response to an approaching cold front. This cold front will quickly move across the area through Friday. Enhanced NW to N wind will be building in behind the front. Associated large NW to N swell will spread across the area on Saturday, and it will diminish by early Monday. The winds will become quiescent from Saturday to early Sunday. A second cold front will reach the far NW waters on Sunday night. The second cold front will move across the area through Monday. Strong to possibly gale force winds are expected on either side of the front, to the northeast of the Bahamas, early next week. $$ AKR