000 AXNT20 KNHC 271716 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1216 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING... The 42-hour forecast for the coastal waters of Colombia, consists of: gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds are forecast to be less than gale-force at 48 hours. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING... The 42-hour forecast position for a cold front is 31N59W 26N69W TO 25N80W. Expect gale-force NW winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, N of 29N within 180 nm to the W of the cold front. The 48-hour forecast position of the cold front is 31N55W 25N65W 24N80W. Expect gale-force SW winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, N of 29N within 210 nm to the E of the cold front. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 60 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 15N southward. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong within 120 nm of the coasts of the western one-third of Panama, to Costa Rica, to the extreme SE corner of Nicaragua. Other precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong extends from the eastern sections of Nicaragua, to eastern Honduras, to the NW Caribbean Sea that is about 90 nm to the north of the eastern half of Honduras, to a distance of 300 nm to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from 18N to 20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of southern Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N32W and 03N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 330 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has moved into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, for the 27/1200 UTC surface map analysis. The cold front stands out well in visible satellite imagery, with a distinct line of clouds. The cloud line passes through the Florida Panhandle, southernmost Mississippi, SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep South of Texas. Rainshowers are possible in the line of clouds. No other significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The current cold front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Brownsville Texas this afternoon. The eastern part of the front will sweep southeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night, reaching the Straits of Florida. The western part of the front will move northward, and inland in Texas, as a warm front, from Thursday through Friday. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. The second cold front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to far southern Texas early on Sunday; and from near west central Florida to far northeastern Mexico on Sunday night. Mainly fresh northerly winds are expected behind this front, except for fresh to strong winds in the NE Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale-force winds are forecast for the coastal waters of Colombia. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. The GFS model is forecasting a 250 mb trough, that extends from the north central coast of Venezuela, to the coast of Guyana and into central Suriname. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the inland areas and the coastal waters from 02N to 12N between 50W and 68W. The areal coverage includes the following countries and coastal waters: Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana, and other surrounding islands that are in the eastern and SE Caribbean Sea. The northern extent of the same 250 mb trough passes about halfway between the NE Caribbean Sea islands and Puerto Rico, reaching the north central coast of Venezuela. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected across the S central Caribbean Sea, and near the coast of Colombia, from late tonight into early Thursday. Fresh to strong winds are expected elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. The fresh to strong winds are forecast to spread westward across the W central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong northeast winds will pulse downwind of the Windward Passage, in the Lee of Cuba, and the Lee of the Dominican Republic, during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gale-force winds are forecast at 42 hours into the forecast cycle, with a cold front. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. A stationary front passes through 32N51W to 31N55W, curving to 28N61W. A surface trough extends from 29N57W, to a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 27N57W, to 21N61W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong within 630 nm to the east of the surface trough/1018 mb low pressure center, from 21N northward. A second stationary front is near the Madeira Archipelago, passing through 32N17W 26N32W 30N38W, to a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 28N41W. A surface trough continues from the low pressure center to 25N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 180 nm to the south of the stationary front from 30W eastward. A thin line of rainshowers is along 25N74W 27N76W 32N77W, to the ENE and N of the Bahamas. High pressure that covers the area will shift eastward and weaken through early Thursday, in response to an approaching cold front. This cold front will move across the area quickly, on Thursday and Thursday night. The front will be followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds across the NE forecast waters, and by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds elsewhere, as a new area of high pressure builds into the region. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas from Friday through Saturday night. A second cold front will reach the northwest waters on Sunday night. Strong to gale force winds and building seas are expected on either side of the second cold front early next week. $$ MT