000 AXNT20 KNHC 271141 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 641 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Surface high pressure will build over the western Atlantic. In response to the tightening of the pressure gradient across the central Caribbean, trade winds strengthen to gale-force tonight through early Wed near the coast of Colombia. Seas will build to 10-13 ft by early Wed in this area. Similar conditions will repeat by late Wed night through early Thu. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 67W south of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. The tropical wave is evident in TPW imagery and infrared satellite imagery. Scattered showers are noted from 14N-17N between 65W-69W and near the coast of Venezuela. A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean is along 83W south of 19N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-19N along the coastal areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. between 80W-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes over the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N33W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong are present from 05N-07N between 48W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, while a low pressure system is building across the south-central CONUS. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the Gulf waters, with strongest winds prevailing across the western half of the basin. A mix of patchy to areas of fog are seen from Deep South Texas along the NW Gulf of Mexico into the coast of Louisiana. Southerly flow prevails across the Gulf ahead of the approaching cold front which is about 100 nm from the coast. Debri high clouds are increasing across the NW Gulf from a low pressure in the EPAC. Light to moderate showers are possible in the NW Gulf. Clear conditions are noted over the Bay of Campeche ESE across the SE Gulf. The cold front will enter the NW Gulf this morning, reaching from the western Florida panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas Wed afternoon. The eastern part of the front will sweep southeastward across the eastern Gulf through Thu night reaching the Straits of Florida. The western part of the front will lift back to the N and inland Texas as a warm front Thu through Fri. Another cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf Sat night and reach from SW Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Mon morning. Mainly fresh northerly winds are expected behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the sections above for more information on the Gale Warning and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Mid-level anticyclonic flow extends from the southern Bay of Campeche eastward across the Greater Antilles, leading to relatively dry weather across Cuba and Hispaniola. The latest ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the basin, with strongest winds prevailing between 64W-78W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical wave, scattered showers and tstorms are seen along the Windward Islands. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected across the S central Caribbean through early today and again tonight into early Wed. A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Thu with these winds spreading across the W central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse downwind of the Windward Passage, in the Lee of Cuba and the Lee of the Dominican Republic through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed from 31N52W to 29N59W to 27N65W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N54W to a 1013 mb low pressure near 28N56W to 23N67W. A second trough is seen to the SE from 26N57W to 21N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of 22N-31N between 48W-57W. A warm front extends from the low to 28N35W, then transitions into a cold front from that point to 30N22W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high near 29N21W. A ridge will dominate the forecast waters today and tonight. A cold front will sweep across the area Thu and Thu night followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds across the NE forecast waters, and by moderate to fresh N to NE winds elsewhere as a new area of high pressure builds over the region. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas Fri through Sat night. Another cold front will reach the northwest waters Sun night. Strong to gale force winds and building seas are expected on either side of the front early next week. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER