000 AXNT20 KNHC 262335 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Surface high pressure will build over the western Atlantic through tonight. In response to the tightening of the pressure gradient across the central Caribbean, trade winds will strengthen to gale-force tonight through early Wed near the coast of Colombia. Seas will build to 10-13 ft by early Wed in this area. Similar conditions will repeat by late Wed night through early Thu. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 64W south of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. The tropical wave is evident in TPW imagery, model diagnostics, and infrared satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is noted to the east of the wave axis mainly south of 12N between 55W-62W. A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis near 80W from 09N- 20N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes over the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 05N25W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are from 03N-08N between the west coast of Africa and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, while a low pressure system is building across the south-central CONUS. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the Gulf waters, with strongest winds prevailing across the western half of the basin. A cold front, associated to the low pressure system over the US Plains, will move to just offshore the Texas coast early Wed, reaching from the western Florida panhandle to Brownsville by Wed afternoon. The eastern part of the front will sweep southeastward across the eastern Gulf through Thu night, become stationary over the Straits of Florida Fri, and dissipate by late Sat night. The western part of the front will lift back to the north and inland Texas Thu through Fri. Another cold front may move into the NW Gulf Sat night and quickly reach from west-central Florida to the central Gulf and to east-central Mexico by late Sun. Mainly fresh northerly winds are expected behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the sections above for more information on the Gale Warning and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Mid-level anticyclonic flow extends from the southern Bay of Campeche eastward across the Greater Antilles, leading to relatively dry weather across Cuba and Hispaniola. The latest ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the basin, with strongest winds prevailing between 60W-70W. Winds will peak to gale-force near the coast of Colombia late tonight into early Wed, and again late Wed night into early Thu. The trades will diminish by the weekend as high pressure north of the area weakens. Fresh to strong northeast winds will pulse downwind of the Windward Passage, in the Lee of Cuba and the Lee of the Dominican Republic through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a cold front from 31N59W to 29N67W, then becomes stationary from that point to 28N71W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N57W to 24N68W. To the east, a 1018 mb surface low is centered near 27N40W. A warm front extends from the low to 29N34W, then transitions into a cold front from that point to 31N24W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1020 mb high near 27N32W and another 1020 mb high near 30N21W. A cold front will sweep across the area Thu and Thu night, followed by fresh to strong northwest winds across the northeast forecast waters, and by moderate to fresh north to northeast elsewhere behind the front as a new area of high pressure builds east- southeastward over the region. Large northerly swell is forecast to propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas Fri through Sat night. Another cold front will approach the northwest waters late Sat night preceded by increasing southwest winds. These winds may reach gale force over much of the northwest and north-central forecast waters Sun afternoon and night. Strong to near gale force winds are expected behind the front. Expect winds, both east and west of the front, to build seas to large values. $$ ERA