000 AXNT20 KNHC 261746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1246 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Surface high pressure will build over the western Atlantic today and tonight. In response to a tightening pressure gradient across the central Caribbean, trade winds will strengthen to minimal gale force overnight into early Wed near the coast of Colombia. Seas will build to 12-13 ft early Wed in association with the expected gales. Looking ahead, another round of nocturnal gales is forecast for late Wed night into early Thu. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 62W south of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. The tropical wave is evident in TPW imagery, model diagnostics, and infrared satellite imagery. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection is from 06N-10N between 56W-61W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N-15N between 53W-65W. A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 78W from 09N-19N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N-19N between 75W-80W, including over Jamaica. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 10N-11N between 78W-80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes over the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 05N25W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are from 03N-08N between the west coast of Africa and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the southern Bay of Campeche. Upper-level winds are westerly across the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a 1018 mb high over northern Florida extends ridging over the eastern and southern Gulf of Mexico. A large low pressure system is over the southern Rockies, southern Plains and northern Mexico. The gradient between the low and high pressure areas is causing fresh to locally strong southerly winds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Fair weather is currently over the southeastern portion of the basin, while broken mid to high level clouds can be seen over portions of the northwestern Gulf. A cold front associated with the low pressure area over the southern Plains will move just offshore the Texas coast early Wed, and reach from the western Florida panhandle to near 28N91W and stationary to near Brownsville Wed afternoon. Strong NE winds are expected offshore the Texas coast Wed behind the front. The cold front portion will sweep southeastward across the eastern Gulf through Thu night and become stationary over the Straits of Florida Fri and dissipate by late Sat night. The stationary portion will lift back to the north and inland into Texas as a warm front Thu through Fri. Another cold front may move into the NW Gulf Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for more information on the Caribbean gale warning, and see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves in the Caribbean. Mid-level anticyclonic flow extends from the southern Bay of Campeche eastward across the Greater Antilles, leading to relatively dry weather across Cuba and Hispaniola. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong trades from 11N-16N between 72W-77W, with fresh trades elsewhere from 11N-17N between 62W-80W. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the basin, except for fresh to strong trades over the south-central and west-central sections. Winds will peak at minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia early Wed, and again late Wed night into early Thu. The trades will diminish by the end of the week into the weekend as high pressure N of the area weakens. Fresh to strong northeast winds will pulse downwind of the Windward Passage, in the Lee of Cuba and the Lee of the Dominican Republic through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N60W to 29N68W to 27N72W. A surface trough is from 27N77W to 30N79W. A 1018 mb surface high is over northern Florida. A 1019 mb surface high is near 34N71W. Generally gentle wind speeds cover the area from 20N-31N between 66W-81W. No significant precipitation is seen in that area. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is seen along and SE of the cold front, from 27.5N-32N between 55W-64W. A pre-frontal trough is from 31N58W to 28N65W, with isolated showers near the trough. Farther E, an upper-level trough axis extends from 32N29W to 25N40W. An associated cold front extends from 32N23W to 30N27W to 29N33W, then stationary to 29N38W to 27N40W. Scattered moderate showers are within 90 nm of the cold front. The western Atlantic cold front will gradually weaken as it shifts east of the area through Wed. The western portion of the front will extend along 25N east of 70W through Thu. A strong low pressure system will emerge off the NE coast of the U.S. and will drag a cold front across the area from 26N-31N Thu and Thu night followed by fresh to strong northwest winds north of 26N and east of 75W. Widespread strong to locally near gale winds will continue into Friday both ahead of and behind the front, north of 26N between 68W-40W. This will create very large northerly swell that will propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas Fri through Sat night. Swells of 10-15 ft are forecast from 20N-31N between 35W- 68W, with 5-8 ft swells extending to the Bahamas. Another cold front will approach the NW waters late Sat night with increasing SW flow ahead of it. $$ Hagen