000 AXNT20 KNHC 252318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 618 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 57/58W from 16N southward, moving W at around 15 kt. The tropical wave shows up well in TPW imagery, model diagnostics and the visible imagery. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-12N between 56W- 60W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 74W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the northern portion of the wave from 15N-18N between 71W-75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W to 09N15W. The ITCZ continues from 09N15W to 05N30W to 05N44W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 03N-08N between 14W-31W and from 06N-11N between 39W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends eastward out of Cuba near 22N84W to the central Gulf near 22N91W. A dying warm front also extends from 22N91W to 23N96W. Light showers are seen along the boundaries. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1015 mb high in the eastern Gulf near 27N87W. The latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin. The front will weaken through tonight. Relatively weak high pressure north of the front will shift northeast of the basin by early Tuesday. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf by early Wednesday, then weaken and become stationary in the northern Gulf by Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh southeast return flow will prevail across the western Gulf Thursday through Saturday with another cold front entering the NW Gulf by Saturday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, the basin is relatively quiet with drier air prevailing through the area. The latest scatterometer pass depicts moderate trades across most of the basin except over the northwest portion, where light winds prevail. The stationary front extending across western Cuba to just north of the Yucatan Channel will weaken through tonight. Gentle to moderate trades will increase to moderate to fresh tonight, then to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean Tuesday and Tuesday night, peaking at near gale near the coast of Colombia overnight Tuesday. The fresh to strong trades will spread to the W central Caribbean Wednesday with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, except pulses of fresh to strong downwind of the Windward Passage, Lee of Cuba, and Lee of Dominican Republic. A surge of fresh to strong trades and large fresh seas will move across the tropical N Atlc S of 15N tonight through early Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A cold front enters the western Atlantic near 31N64W and extends to the Bahamas near 25N76W to NW Cuba near 23N81W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 24N72W to 30N63W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near these features from 26N-31N between 57W-67W. A cold front is also seen in the central Atlantic, entering the forecast waters near 31N31W and stretches southwestward near 24N42W. Showers are seen within 100 nm of the front. An upper low over the Cabo Verde Islands is bringing showers across these islands. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high near 30N26W. Latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict fresh winds near the cold front in the western Atlantic. The cold front will become stationary and weaken from near 31N65W to the central Bahamas by this evening. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Another cold front is forecast to move across the forecast waters Thursday and Thursday night with fresh to strong W to NW winds, and large northerly swell affecting the NE waters. Mainly northerly winds are expected across most of the forecast area in the wake of the front by Friday. $$ AKR