000 AXNT20 KNHC 251147 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 53W from 14N southward and is moving W at 15 kt. The tropical wave shows up well in TPW imagery, model diagnostics and the visible imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N-14N between 49W-57W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 67W from 16N southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. A few showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 04N37W to 07N48W. Aside from the convection related to tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N- 06N between 14W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Straits 24N79W to north of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W, continuing as a stationary front to a 1013 mb low pressure near 20N95W. A stationary front extends south of this low towards Mexico near 18N94W. A line of showers extend along the front and the low. A surface trough extends northwest of the low pressure to near 22N96W. High pressure continues to build behind the front anchored by a 1016 mb high near 26N92W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front near Key West and moderate easterly winds. Light winds are seen in the NW Gulf near the high. A cold front extending from the Straits of Florida to along 20N will stall and weaken over the same area today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front from W to E, shifting NE of the basin by early Tue. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf by early Wed, weakening and stalling in the northern Gulf by Wed night. Moderate to fresh SE return flow will prevail across the western Gulf Thu through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is seen near 12N80W to 17N75W east of Jamaica. Isolated showers are possible along the trough axis. In the eastern Caribbean near the Windward Islands, scattered moderate convection is seen from 15N southward to Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered showers are also seen south of Hispaniola from 14N-17N between 71W-73W. The remainder of the Caribbean is relatively quiet with drier air present across the Greater Antilles. The latest scatterometer pass shows fresh winds across portions of the central Caribbean between 72W-79W with moderate winds elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle winds are in the NW basin west of the trough axis. The front will begin to dissipate later today. Gentle to moderate trades will increase to moderate to fresh tonight, then to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean Tue and Tue night, peaking at near gale near the coast of Colombia overnight Tue. The fresh to strong trades will spread to the W central Caribbean Wed with moderate to fresh elsewhere, except pulses of fresh to strong downwind of the Windward Passage, Lee of Cuba, and Lee of Dominican Republic. A surge of fresh to strong trades and large fresh seas will move across the tropical N Atlc S of 15N tonight through early Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N67W to the northern Bahamas near 26N77W and across the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen 100 nm southeast of the front and north of 26N. Surface trough ahead of the front extends from the central Bahamas near 22N74W to 30N67W. Additional scattered showers are present N of 30N between 59W-67W moving northeast in the periphery of the 1019 mb high centered near 30N50W. Three troughs are noted to the south, one north of PR, the second trough extends from 18N52W to 24N49W, and third from 19N45W to 25N45W. Scattered showers are near the vicinity of these troughs. A cold front is seen entering the forecast area near 30N35W to 26N41W. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 nm southeast of the boundary and north of 25N. Meanwhile, an upper level low is near 24N21W. This is producing scattered showers and tstorms from 22N-29N between 15W-24W near the Canary Islands. Surface high pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high near 30N50W and a 1021 mb high near 31N17W. A trough is seen from 28N19W to 31N19W. Latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh easterly north of the ITCZ from 36W-52W. The cold front will stall and weaken from 31N65W to the central Bahamas by this evening. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Another cold front is forecast to move across the forecast waters Thu and Thu night with fresh to strong W to NW winds, and large northerly swell affecting the NE waters. Mainly northerly winds are expected across most of the forecast area in the wake of the front by Fri. $$ MMT