000 AXNT20 KNHC 250605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 51W from 14N southward and is moving W at 15 kt. The tropical wave shows up well in TPW imagery and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 05N-14N between 48W-56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 66W from 16N southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is currently associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 05N30W to 03N37W to 01N49W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 15W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from SW Florida near 25N81W southwestward to SE Gulf, then stalls from 24N84W to a 1013 mb low near 21N94W. A stationary front extends south of this low toward Mexico near 18N95W. A line of showers extend along the front and the low. High pressure continues to build behind the front anchored by a 1016 mb high near 28N94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. Light winds are seen in the NW Gulf near the high. The front will stall and weaken over the same area through Mon morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front from W to E, shifting NE of the basin by early Tue. The next cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf by early Wed, weakening and stalling in the northern Gulf by Wed night. Moderate to fresh SE return flow will prevail across the western Gulf Thu through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough axis extends from the Windward Passage to the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border. A surface trough is seen near the same area, extending from 10N81W to east of Jamaica near 18N75W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the trough axis. In the eastern Caribbean near the Windward Islands, scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N-13N between 59W-62W. The remainder of the Caribbean is relatively quiet with drier air present across the Greater Antilles. The latest scatterometer pass shows fresh winds across portions of the central Caribbean between 72W-79W with moderate winds elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle winds are in the NW basin. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the area through tonight with mainly northerly winds across the NW Caribbean. Winds will begin to increase across the south-central Caribbean late on Mon. Then, expect fresh to strong winds across the central part of the basin Mon night through Thu night, with these winds spreading westward toward the coast of Nicaragua Tue night through Wed night. At that time, strong to near gale force winds are also forecast near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N69W to the northern Bahamas near 26N77W to south of Hollywood, Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen N of 28N-31N between 67W-71W. A surface trough ahead of the front extends from the central Bahamas north to 30N68W. Additional scattered showers are present N of 25N to 31N in the periphery of the 1019 mb high further east near 33N50W. Two pair of troughs are noted north of PR and the other extending from 18N53W to 24N47W. Scattered showers are near the vicinity of these two troughs. A forming cold front is seen entering the forecast area near 31N35W to 26N42W. Scattered moderate convection extends about 350 nm east of the boundary. Meanwhile, an upper level low near 24N21W has a surface trough associated with it, analyzed 24N28W to 30N24W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen from 22N-28N between 16W-24W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Surface high pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high near 33N50W and a 1022 mb high near 32N16W. Latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate NW winds behind the cold front. The front will reach from 31N67W to Western Cuba by Mon morning, then stall and begin to weaken on Mon night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Another cold front is forecast to move across the forecast waters Thu and Thu night with fresh to strong W to NW winds affecting the NE waters. Mainly northerly winds are expected across most of the forecast area in the wake of the front by Fri. $$ MMT