000 AXNT20 KNHC 232347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 647 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Sebastien, at 23/2100 UTC, is near 32.4N 45.4W. Sebastien is moving NE at 25 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb with maximum sustained wind speeds up to 55 kt and gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen 200 nm in the eastern semi-circle. A line of thunderstorms are seen SE of the storm from 23N-33N between 41W- 48W. Sebastian is expected to continue with the fast northeastward motion for the next couple of days. Little change in the maximum winds is expected during the next couple of days. Sebastien is forecast to become post-tropical on Sunday and dissipate early next week. The Public Advisories for Sebastien are available via AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC. The Forecast/Advisories for Sebastien are available via the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or at www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 41W from 11N southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen along the wave axis from 5N-10N between 40W- 43W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 60W from 14N southward and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 75 nm of the wave from 11N-13N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N23W 05N37W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 02N-06N and E of 13W in addition to areas from 02N-07N between 22W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is pushing across the central and western Gulf, entering the waters from the AL/FL border near 30N87W and stretching southwestward to 26N93W to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the front. Surface ridging is seen in the eastern Gulf. The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle SW winds in the eastern Gulf with moderate NW winds behind the front. The cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico tonight and from south Florida to the central Bay of Campeche on Sunday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front from W to E, shifting NE of the basin by early Tuesday. The next cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf by early Wednesday, weakening and stalling in the northern Gulf by Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line extends across the eastern and central Caribbean from 15N62W to 15N78W. Shower with isolated thunderstorms are seen within 70 nm of this feature. A trough continues to linger across Honduras and Nicaragua, analyzed from 12N83W to 17N85W along with showers seen within 50 nm. Otherwise, relatively quiet weather is seen across the basin. Latest scatterometer depicts fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean, gentle trades in the southern basin, and moderate to fresh trades across the rest of the basin. Moderate trades will prevail across the basin through the weekend. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh on Monday, then to fresh to strong in the south-central and W central portions Tuesday night through Thursday night as the pressure gradient tightens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extends south of T.S. Sebastien from 18N55W to 26N51W with thunderstorms seen from 20N-24N between 49W-52W. An upper level low near 24N33W is bringing an area of scattered showers from 20N-29N between 19W-30W. High pressure dominates the rest of the area anchored by a 1019 mb high in the western Atlantic near 29N74W and a 1022 mb high in the eastern Atlantic near 31N28W. High pressure in the western Atlantic will shift eastward tonight as a cold front reaches the NW waters. The front will extend from 31N77W to 29N81W by Sunday morning, and from 31N67W to the Straits of Florida by Sunday night. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front and mainly N of 28N. $$ AKR