000 AXNT20 KNHC 231727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Sebastien, at 23/1500 UTC, is near 30.4N 47.7W. SEBASTIEN is moving northeastward, or 055 degrees, 23 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 120 nm on either side of the line that extends from 29N46W 26N46W 22N49W 19N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 31N northward between 40W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 13N to 18N between 47W and 52W. A stationary front extends from 34N42W to 33N47W to 32N49W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 32N49W to 30N51W and 28N53W. A surface trough is along 23N52W 18N56W to Dominica. SEBASTIEN is forecast to become post-tropical/extratropical in 48 hours or so. The Public Advisories for Sebastien are available via AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC. The Forecast/Advisories for Sebastien are available via the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, from 11N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Guyana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, to 04N20W 04N30W 05N34W and 05N37W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ, and elsewhere from 04N southward from 12W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 13N southward between 40W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through SE Louisiana, to 26N95W in the west central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the west of the line that runs from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W, to 26N90W to 19N92W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 90W eastward. The current cold front will extend from near Sarasota, Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico near 23.5N90W, to the SW Gulf near 21N96W by early Sunday. The front will stall and weaken from the N coast of Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front from W to E, shifting NE of the basin by early Tuesday. The next cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. The front will weaken and stall in the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line extends from the Martinique Passage to 14N70W and 15N78W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 100 nm to the south of the shear line between 75W and 79W, and within 150 nm to the north of the shear line between 73W and 77W. Isolated moderate within 75 nm to the north of the shear line between 64W and 67W. A surface trough is in the western/NW part of the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Precipitation: Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and isolated moderate precipitation from 12N to 19N between 81W and 87W. Scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms are near the Martinique Passage-to-15N78W shear line. Moderate trade winds will prevail across the basin through the weekend. The wind speeds will increase to moderate to fresh on Monday. The wind speeds will increase to fresh to strong in the S central and W central parts of the Caribbean Sea, from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, as the pressure gradient tightens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N33W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward between 20W and 40W. Broken to overcast middle and high level clouds cover the area from 19N to 28N between 21W and 32W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 29N72W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward from 56W westward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N29W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 15N northward from 40W eastward. Tropical Storm Sebastien near 30.4N 47.7W 997 mb at 10 AM EST moving NE at 23 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Sebastien will move to 32.1N 44.5W this evening, 34.4N 40.0W Sun morning, 36.8N 34.0W Sun evening, become extratropical and move to 39.3N 26.7W Mon morning, and dissipate Tue morning. A stationary front is W of Sebastien extending from 31N49W to near 28N52W. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters today, then shift eastward tonight. The next cold front will cross the region from Sunday through Monday, weakening from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and N coast of Cuba from Monday night through Tuesday. High pressure will build into the area from the W, and it will cover the region by mid- week. $$ mt