000 AXNT20 KNHC 191114 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 614 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure center near 19N58W continues to show signs of organization. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is from 15N-22N between 52W-59W. Additional development is expected and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form later today or Wed while the system moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The low is forecast to interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development is unlikely after that time. The chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours is high. This system is forecast to produce winds to gale force by late tonight or early Wed morning when the low is moving northward in the general vicinity of 23N60W. See High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers NFDHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 12N southward, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-06N between 35W-43W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70/71W from 20N southward, moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers are within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave axis from 12N-19N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ extends from 06N14W to 03N21W to 02N34W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02S-03N between 21W-34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-08N between 11W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 05N-10N between 23W-28W. GULF OF MEXICO... Two 1015 mb surface highs are over the western Gulf, near 24N93W and near 27N94W, respectively. Weak surface ridging covers most of the Gulf, along with relatively dry air. Weak high pressure over the western Gulf will shift eastward through tonight. Fresh SE return flow will develop off the Texas coast Wed through Thu. A strong cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon, resulting in fresh to strong northerly winds behind it. The front will rapidly move across the basin, nearly exiting by late Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from 22N70W to the Windward Passage near 19N75W. A surface trough continues to the eastern coast of Jamaica to 15N78W to 10N81W. Isolated moderate convection is from 19N-22N between 70W-77W in parts of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the west and northwest of the surface trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate N winds to the west of the surface trough over the western Caribbean, and fresh along the coast of Nicaragua. The trough will dissipate tonight. The tropical wave along 71W will weaken through tonight and early Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on the low pressure near 19N58W, which has a high chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. A surface trough extends from 32N70W to near Nassau Bahamas with isolated showers possible east of the trough axis. A cold front passes through 32N61W to 28N65W. The front becomes stationary from 28N65W to 22N70W to the Windward Passage near 19N75W. Scattered moderate convection is near the cold front. Isolated moderate convection is near the stationary front from 19N-22N between 70W- 77W in parts of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Surface high pressure ridging covers the Atlantic elsewhere east of 55W, anchored by a 1030 mb high near 33N38W. Trade winds of 20-25 kt cover the Atlantic from 15N-25N between 20W-45W. Seas west of the W Atlantic stationary front, N and NE of the Bahamas, will continue to gradually subside through early this evening. A trough behind the stationary front will generate into a cold front and sweep across the rest of the western and central forecast waters this afternoon through Wed night. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind this front. High pressure will build across the northern waters Thu through Sat. Yet another cold front may move off the northeast Florida coast late Sat night. Fresh to strong southwest winds are forecast to develop over the far northwest waters beginning on Sat afternoon. $$ Hagen