000 AXNT20 KNHC 182353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 19N58W, about 210 nm to the ENE of the northern Leeward Islands. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 270 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Wind speeds of 30 mph to 35 mph are on the NE side of the low pressure center. Some gradual development of this system is expected. It is possible that a tropical depression or a subtropical depression may form during the next couple of days. The movement is forecast to be northwestward, and then northward, in the open Atlantic Ocean. Upper level winds are expected to become less conducive in a couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after midweek. Additional development is not expected after that time. Please read the High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by the National Weather Service, for more details. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 14N southward, moving W 5 to 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 270 nm on either side of the wave, mostly from 07N southward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N southward across the easternmost part of the Dominican Republic, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Isolated moderate within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 07N24W 05N30W, 04N37W, 02N44W and to 02N50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong within 300 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 18W and 26W. Isolated moderate to locally strong within 360 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 17W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a western Gulf of Mexico 1017 mb high pressure center, that is near 24N95W, to the Yucatan Peninsula, to Honduras. Weak high pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward through Tuesday night. Fresh SE return flow will develop off the Texas coast fro Wednesday through Thursday. A strong cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast on Friday afternoon. The result will be fresh to strong northerly winds behind it. The front will move across the basin rapidly, nearly exiting by late Saturday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from 22N70W, across NW Haiti to the waters that are between Haiti and Cuba. A surface trough continues to the eastern coast of Jamaica, to 15N78W, and to 12N81W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 18N to 21N between 70W and 75W in parts of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the west and northwest of the surface trough. A trough, that is extending from the Windward Passage across eastern Jamaica and into the SW Caribbean Sea, will weaken slowly and dissipate by late Tuesday. A 69W tropical wave will weaken through mid week as it crosses the central Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure that is near 19N58W is expected to undergo gradual development during the next couple of days. This low pressure center has the potential to become a tropical cyclone or a subtropical cyclone, as it moves northwestward across the SW N Atlantic Ocean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N63W, to 27N66W, to 22N70W. The front becomes stationary from 22N70W, across NW Haiti to the waters that are between Haiti and Cuba. A surface trough continues to the eastern coast of Jamaica, to 15N78W, and to 12N81W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 90 nm to 210 nm to the east of the cold front from 27N northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward, in an area of broad surface cyclonic wind flow/low pressure. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean, elsewhere, from 20N northward from 50W eastward. The current cold front extends from 30N65W to 20N70W then stationary to near the N coast of Haiti. Stronger winds have diminished behind the front. Large seas N and NE of the Bahamas will subside gradually through Tuesday. A second cold front will develop and cross the northern waters from late Tuesday into Wednesday. The result will be fresh to strong W to NW winds and building seas. High pressure will build across the northern waters from Thursday through Friday. A broad area of low pressure that is near 19N58W is expected to undergo gradual development during the next couple of days. This low pressure center has the potential to become a tropical cyclone or a subtropical cyclone, as it moves northwestward across the SW N Atlantic Ocean, before merging with the cold front. It is possible that a third cold front may move off NE Florida by Saturday night. $$ mt