000 AXNT20 KNHC 181809 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1008 mb low pressure located 350 nm east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and tstorms with winds of around 25 kt on its northeast side. Scattered moderate convection is present from 14N-21N between 48W-55W. Some gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days when it moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after midweek and further development is not expected by that time. See High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 14N southward, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is along the wave and within 350 nm E of the wave axis from 01N-11N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 19N southward across the Mona Passage, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave axis from 12N-16N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N30W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 04N36W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 01N-10N between 13W-30W, and scattered showers from 00N-04N between 37W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb surface high is centered in the W Gulf near 26N94W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the W Gulf. Moderate N winds cover the E Gulf. A surface trough to the south extends from 19N93W to 23N96W. A few showers are near the trough. High pressure over the western Gulf will shift eastward through Tuesday night. Fresh SE return flow will become established off the Texas coast by mid-week before weakening some Thu and Thu night. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the far western Gulf Fri night followed by fresh to strong north winds over western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean to the Windward Passage near 19N73W to 19N74W. A surface trough then extends from 19N74W to Jamaica to near 12N81W. Scattered showers and tstorms are within 40 nm of the trough axis. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the proximity of the front to the north. Northwest of the trough axis, moderate N winds cover the NW Caribbean, with light easterly winds across the eastern Caribbean. The trough will slowly weaken and dissipate by late Tue. The tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will weaken through mid week as it crosses the central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 998 mb low is near 34N70W with a trough extending southwest to the northwest Bahamas to 26N76W. Further E, a cold front extends from 31N65W to 21N70W across the Windward Passage to 19N74W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 100 nm SE of the front from the Windward Passage north to 31N. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted behind and the front and fresh to strong southerly wind is seen ahead of the front north of 24N between 59W-65W. To the east, a 1029 mb high near 32N36W extends surface ridging over the E Atlantic. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong anticyclonic flow prevails across the Atlantic north of 12N between 16W-60W. Fresh to locally strong winds behind the front will diminish by tonight, while large seas north and northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside through Tue. Another cold front will develop and cross the northern waters late Tue into Wed, resulting in fresh to strong W to NW winds and building seas. High pressure will build across the northern waters Thu through Fri. Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure near 19N56W is expected to undergo gradual development during the next couple of days, potentially becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone as it tracks northwestward across the SW N Atlantic before merging with the cold front. $$ MMTorres