000 AXNT20 KNHC 181121 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1008 mb low pressure area near 19N56W is producing disorganized scattered moderate convection from 14N-20N between 48W-55W. Strong winds near 25 kt extend outward several hundred nm in the NE quadrant of the low. A tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after midweek and further development is not expected by that time. See High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 15N southward, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is within 210 nm east of the wave axis from 05N-11N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 20N southward across Puerto Rico, moving W at 5-10 kt. A weak surface trough is associated with this wave. Isolated showers are within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave axis from 12N-20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N31W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 02N34W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is from 01N-10N between 13W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb surface high is centered in the W Gulf near 26N95W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the W Gulf. Moderate N winds cover the E Gulf. A weak and dry cold front will quickly move across the eastern Gulf this afternoon and evening. In its wake, the high pressure over the western Gulf will shift east-northeast to the NE Gulf by Wed. Fresh to strong southeast return flow will become established off the Texas coast by mid-week before weakening some Thu and Thu night. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the far western Gulf Fri night followed by strong north winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean to the Windward Passage near 20N75W. A surface trough then extends from 20N75W to Jamaica to near 13N83W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Northwest of the trough axis, moderate N winds cover the NW Caribbean, with fresh N winds near the coast of central Nicaragua. The trough will slowly dissipate through late Tue. A tropical wave along 67W will weaken through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 994 mb low is near 35N70W. A cold front associated with this low extends from 32N67W to 24N69W to the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and within 240 nm E of the front north of 26N. South of 26N, isolated moderate convection is along and within 120 nm E of the front. Fresh to strong N winds are north of 26N between 65W-80W. To the east, a 1027 mb high near 33N41W extends surface ridging over the E Atlantic. Fresh to strong N winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds behind the W Atlantic cold front today. Large seas north and NE of the Bahamas will gradually subside through Tue. A couple of dry cold fronts will sweep across the W Atlantic today through Wed. The second of these fronts will be followed by strong west to northwest winds across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas late Tue into early Wed. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build in across the area through the end of the week. $$ Hagen