000 AXNT20 KNHC 180525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1225 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1010 mb low pressure area near 18N54W is producing disorganized showers and tstorms from 15N-20N between 48W-55W. Strong winds near 25 kt extend outward several hundred nm in the NE quadrant of the low. A tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after midweek and further development is not expected by that time. See High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 15N southward, moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 05N-12N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 20N southward across Puerto Rico, moving W at 5-10 kt. A weak surface trough is associated with this wave. Isolated showers are within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 13N-20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N31W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 02N32W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N between the tropical wave along 32W and the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb surface high is centered just offshore Freeport Texas near 28.5N95W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the W Gulf. Moderate N winds cover the E Gulf. The high pressure over the W Gulf will dominate through the early part of the week. A rather weak front will move across the eastern Gulf this afternoon through Tue, with the high shifting E in its wake. Fresh to strong SE return flow will become established off the Texas coast by mid-week before weakening some Thu and Thu night. A stronger cold front will move into the western Gulf Fri and Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean to the Turks and Caicos to the Windward Passage near 20N75W. A surface trough then extends from 20N75W to Jamaica to the NE coast of Nicaragua near 14N84W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. Northwest of the trough axis, moderate N winds cover the NW Caribbean. The trough will become stationary and diffuse early this morning. A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Puerto Rico will weaken through the early part of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 996 mb low is near 33N72W. A cold front extends from a triple point associated with this low near 37N69W to 32N68W to 26N69W to the Turks and Caicos Islands to the eastern tip of Cuba. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen north of 27N between 63W and the cold front. Similar convection is north of 30N between 58W-61W and north of 31N between 67W-70W. Fresh to near gale force winds are north of 26N between 65W-80W. To the east, a 1028 mb high near 33N27W extends surface ridging over the E Atlantic. Fresh to near gale force winds will diminish behind the W Atlantic cold front today. Large seas NE of the Bahamas and behind the front will subside through the early part of the week. Scattered tstms within 120 nm ahead of the front will persist early this morning. The front will stall and weaken from roughly Bermuda to the N coast of Haiti through today. A couple of weak and dry cold fronts will sweep across the western Atlantic Mon through Wed. High pressure will build in across the area Wed through Fri night. $$ Hagen