000 AXNT20 KNHC 171656 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1156 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 32N70W and extends southward to the SE Bahamas near 23N74W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. A 993 mb extratropical low with a central pressure of 993 mb is located near 32N75W. Gale-force winds are currently on- going north of 29N and west of 74W. Seas are peaking at 15-20 ft north of 28N and west of 77W. Ship A8OK6 reported 17 ft seas north of the NW Bahamas at 1200 UTC. Expect these gale-force winds to gradually weaken and drop below gale force around 0000 UTC this evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave with an axis near 67W S of 19N is moving W around 10 kt. A well-defined trough is analyzed at the surface associated with this wave. Scattered showers are observed from satellite and WSR-88D radar in San Juan from 14N to 19N between 64W and 68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 10N between 13W and 21W as well as from 06N to 10N between 29W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging over the SE United States is promoting light and variable winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate N winds in the eastern Gulf. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Gulf in the post-frontal dry and cool airmass prevailing over the basin. Winds and seas continue to diminish over the basin as high pressure builds in across the region. A rather weak front will move across the eastern Gulf Mon afternoon through Tue. High pressure building behind that front will allow for fresh to strong southeast return flow to become established off the Texas coast by mid-week before weakening some Thu and Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the tropical waves section for information on the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. A cold front enters the N Caribbean from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to 14N83W over northern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of this front mostly between 80W and 84W. An upper-level ridge is bringing subsidence to the eastern half of the Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection, though scattered showers are observed from satellite and WSR-88D radar in San Juan from 14N to 19N between 64W and 68W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh N winds in the NW Caribbean behind the cold front with light to gentle tradewinds across the rest of the basin. The cold front will become stationary and weaken from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua by early this evening. Low pressure will form along a trough east of the Leeward Islands Mon and track to the northeast of the islands through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front enters the forecast waters near 32N70W and extends southward to the SE Bahamas near 23N74W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm of the cold front in the western Atlantic, north of 22N. A 1029 mb high is centered north of our area near 36N27W. A moderate pressure gradient equatorward of the high is producing generally moderate to fresh breeze tradewind easterlies. In the central Atlantic, an upper-level low is helping to induce a surface trough extending from 14N60W to 19N52W. Widely scattered convection associated with this system is noted from 14N to 21N between 48W and 55W. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours as it moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after mid- week and further development is not expected after that time. The front will stall and weaken from roughly Bermuda to the Windward Passage tonight through Mon. A couple of weak and dry cold fronts will sweep across the area Mon through Wed. High pressure will build in across the area Wed through Thu night. $$ Landsea