000 AXNT20 KNHC 170545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1245 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N73W and extends southward to the central Bahamas near 24N76W to central Cuba near 22N77W. Gale-force winds are currently on-going primarily within 30N78W to 29N78W to 30N80W to 31N80W to 31N78W to 30N78W. Seas will range from 14-19 ft in mixed swell. Expect these gale-force winds to continue through early Monday morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave with an axis along 64W S of 19N is moving W at 10-15 kts. Scattered showers are seen within 100 nm of the wave axis mostly north of 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra- Leone near 07N12W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to near 02N38W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 03N-09N between 11W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen north of the ITCZ from 05N-10N between 25W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure extends across the entire basin from a 1022 mb high near 32N94W. Fair weather conditions prevail across the Gulf. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds in the eastern Gulf with calm to light east- northeast winds in the western basin. Winds and seas continue to diminish over the basin as high pressure builds in the wake of a cold front that moved through the Gulf yesterday. A weaker front will move across the eastern Gulf late Monday and Tuesday. High pressure building behind that front will allow fresh to strong SE return flow off the Texas coast by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the tropical waves section for information on the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. A cold front enters the NW Caribbean from central Cuba near 21N78W to northern Honduras near 16N86W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of this front. There are also scattered thunderstorms seen between SE Cuba and Jamaica. Farther south, the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing convection off the Costa Rican and Panama coast, S of 11N between 80W-83W. An upper level ridge is bringing subsidence to the eastern half of the Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection associated with the tropical wave. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds in the NW Caribbean behind the cold front with calm to light trades across the rest of the basin. A cold front from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras will stall and weaken from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua on Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front as it moves across the NW Caribbean. A weak trough will drift west toward the Leeward Islands through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm of the cold front in the western Atlantic. These storms extend along the front mostly north of 21N, which is impacting portions of the southern Bahamas. Farther east, an upper level low is located near 16N53W with a surface trough extending along 54W from 06-22N. Scattered moderate convection associated with this system is noted from 12N- 21N between 40W-54W. An E-W oriented upper level trough continues to linger along the Western Sahara. This is bringing scattered showers across Mauritania and Western Sahara. Otherwise, surface ridging dominates the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic from a 1029 mb high near 36N28W. A cold front from 31N72W to eastern Cuba will stall and weaken from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sunday into Monday. Gale force winds are expected this weekend over the northern waters W of 70W, as an area of low pressure deepens off the coast of the Carolinas. Marine conditions will then improve across the area through mid week as the low pressure moves farther N of the area. $$ AKR