000 AXNT20 KNHC 161750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1002 mb low near 32N75W to the northern Bahamas near 26N77W to NW Cuba near 23N80W. Gale-force winds will develop west the front mainly N of 28N between 74W-80W by this evening. These gale-force winds are expected to continue through Sunday with seas ranging 10-18 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W S of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 05N21W to 04N33W. The ITCZ continues from 04N33W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 00N-16N between 08W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure continues to build in across the Gulf with dry air filling in. Light showers may be over the western Bay of Campeche. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf. A cold front will move across the eastern Gulf late Mon and Tue. High pressure building behind that front will allow fresh to strong SE return flow off the Texas coast by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front continues to press southeastward across the NW Caribbean, extending from south-central Cuba near 22N81W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf of Honduras from 16N-18N between 84W-88W. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean due to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, mostly S of 10N. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades throughout most of the Caribbean with moderate winds north of Colombia. A strong upper level ridge is over the eastern portion of the basin with strong subsidence. The front will stall and weaken from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua on Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front as it moves across the northwest Caribbean. A weak trough will drift west toward the Leeward Islands through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information in regards to the developing gale in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1002 mb low near 32N75W to the northern Bahamas near 26N77W to NW Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front N of 29N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also within 90 nm of the front S of 29N. A trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 20N54W to 11N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-23N between 43W-56W. Surface ridging dominates the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic from a 1030 mb high near 38N29W. An upper level low is noted over the tropical Atlantic near 18N50W enhancing convection. The front will stall and weaken from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sun into Mon. Gale force winds are expected this weekend over the northern waters W of 70W, as an area of low pressure deepens off the coast of South Carolina. Marine conditions will then improve across the area through mid week as the low pressure moves farther north of the area. $$ Formosa