000 AXNT20 KNHC 161055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 555 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1005 mb low near 33N76W to the northern Bahamas near 27N78W to NW Cuba near 23N81W. Gale- force winds will develop west the front mainly N of 29N between 75W-80W by Saturday afternoon. These gale- force winds are expected to continue through Sunday morning with seas ranging 12-21 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 62W S of 20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Showers along the northern portion of the wave are moving across the Leeward Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 05N21W to 04N34W. The ITCZ continues from 04N34W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough from 03N-10N between 13W- 21W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 24W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure continues to build in across the Gulf with dry air filling in. Light showers are still lingering across the eastern Gulf near the Florida coast, from the Tampa Bay coast down to the Keys, with the rest of the basin experiencing fair weather. A trough extends across the western Bay of Campeche from 18N93W to 24N96W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish over the basin through Sunday as a cold front continues to move away from the area. High pressure will prevail across the region through Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front continues to press southeastward across the NW Caribbean, extending from south-central Cuba near 22N82W to Belize near 17N88W. A pre-frontal trough also extends from central Cuba near 22N88W to northern Honduras near 16N86W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are moving ahead of the front from 16N-22N between 80W-88W. Convection is also noted in the SW Caribbean due to enhancement from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, mostly S of 10N between 76W-83W. Scattered showers are moving across Puerto Rico eastward through the Lesser Antilles. A strong mid- level ridge is present across the eastern portion of the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades throughout most of the Caribbean with moderate winds north of Colombia. The cold front will extend from central Cuba to Honduras later today, then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front as it moves across the NW Caribbean. A weak trough will drift west toward the Lesser Antilles this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information in regards to the developing gale in the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front N of 29N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also within 90 nm of the front S of 29N. In the central Atlantic, a mid- level low is noted near 18N49W and extends southward into Suriname/French Guiana. At the surface, a trough extends from 12N56W to 22N57W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this system is observed from 09N- 23N between 45W- 57W. An upper level trough extends E-W off the eastern African coast, mostly along western Sahara and Mauritania. This is bringing scattered showers across Senegal and Mauritania. Otherwise, surface ridging dominates the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic from a 1030 mb high near 37N29W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh WNW winds filling in behind the front off the Florida coast, N of 27N and W of 79W. The cold front will extend from 30N70W to eastern Cuba Sun. Gale force winds are expected this weekend over the northern waters W of 70W as an area of low pressure deepens off the coast of South Carolina. Marine conditions will improve across the area Sunday through Tuesday. $$ AKR