597 AXNT20 KNHC 160548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1248 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1008 mb low near 32N77W to south Florida near 26N80W and along the Florida Keys to NW Cuba near 23N82W. Gale- force winds will develop west the front mainly N of 29N between 75W-80W by Saturday evening. These gale- force winds are expected to continue through Sunday evening with seas ranging 11-19 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W S of 22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is currently associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal/Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 05N26W to 05N35W. The ITCZ continues from 05N35W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough from 04N-11N between 14W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the monsoon trough from 01N-09N between 25W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... With the cold front exiting the Gulf and pushing across the western Atlantic, high pressure is building in across the western Gulf with dry air filling in. Showers are still lingering across the eastern Gulf near the Florida coast, from the Tampa Bay coast down to the Keys, with the rest of the basin experiencing fair weather. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish over the basin through Saturday as the cold front moves SE of the area. High pressure will prevail across the region through Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front continues to press southward across the NW Caribbean, extending from SW Cuba near 22N84W to the Yucatan near 19N88W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are moving ahead of the front from 16N-21N between 81W-86W. Convection is also noted in the SW Caribbean due to enhancement from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, mostly S of 11N between 75W-81W. Scattered showers are moving across Puerto Rico eastward through the Lesser Antilles. A strong mid-level ridge is present across the eastern portion of the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades throughout most of the Caribbean with moderate winds north of Colombia. The cold front will extend from Cuba to Honduras on Saturday, then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front as it moves across the NW Caribbean. A weak trough will drift west toward the Lesser Antilles this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information in regards to the developing gale in the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is along and ahead of the cold front from 28N-31N between 71W-78W. Scattered showers are also noted across the northern Bahamas. In the central Atlantic, a mid-level low is noted near 17N50W and extends southward into Suriname/French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection associated with this low is observed from 14N-24N between 44W-55W. An upper level trough extends E-W off the eastern African coast, mostly along western Sahara and Mauritania. This is bringing scattered showers across Senegal and Mauritania in addition to the Cabo Verde Islands. Otherwise, surface ridging dominates the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic from a 1032 mb high near 38N29W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh WNW winds filling in behind the front off the Florida coast, N of 27N and W of 79W. Gale force winds are expected this weekend over the northern waters W of 70W as an area of low pressure deepens off the coast of South Carolina. The cold front will extend from 30N70W to eastern Cuba by Sunday. Marine conditions will improve across the region Sunday night and Monday. $$ AKR