000 AXNT20 KNHC 140543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1243 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will enter the Gulf Thursday, then move SE and clear the basin Fri. In the wake of this front, gale force winds are forecast over portions of the SW Gulf on Friday morning north of 19N and west of 95W, with seas ranging between 9-11 ft. These conditions will continue through late Friday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned with axis along 53W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 17N-20N between 50W-54W. A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 85W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis in the SW Caribbean, mainly enhanced by the presence of the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection are noted within 210 nm on either sides of the monsoon trough between 20W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the southwest Gulf waters. A stationary front extends across the southern portion of the basin from 25N80W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W. A surface trough extends over the western Gulf from 27N97W to 19N93W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the Texas/Mexico border near 26N98W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted over the southwest Gulf. The stationary front will begin to drift NW-N and gradually dissipate Thu. A new cold front will move into the Gulf Thu, then moves SE and clear the basin Fri. Weak low pressure is expected to form Thu night or early Fri over the NE Gulf and move slowly NE. In the wake of this front, gale force winds are forecast over portions of the SW Gulf Fri and Fri night. The next cold front may move into the western Gulf late Sun through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean and eastern Yucatan Peninsula mainly north of 18N between 84W-88W. Relatively dry air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the far SW Caribbean and over land from N Colombia to Nicaragua are due to the east Pacific monsoon trough and the tropical wave along 85W. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trades across the basin. The stationary front will begin to drift NW-N and gradually dissipate today. The next cold front will move into the far NW Caribbean late Friday, gradually stalling after reaching eastern Cuba to Nicaragua Sunday. The remnants of the front will linger roughly along 80W for the start of next week. Fresh to strong N winds will follow this next cold front as it moves across the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will lead to generally moderate tradewinds. NE swell will impact the Atlantic as well as Caribbean passages Fri through the weekend and into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a cold front from 31N65W to 27N74W, then becomes stationary from that point to 25N80W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N63W to 22N70W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the cold front and northern half of the trough. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1036 mb high centered near 43N31W. A surface trough is noted in scatterometer data extending from 16N44W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough. The frontal system in the west Atlantic will completely stall and begin to drift northward as it gradually dissipates today. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds and large seas will prevail behind the front through tonight, diminishing and decaying Thursday through Friday. Low pressure is forecast to develop near NE Florida by early Friday and move NE through the far NW basin into Saturday. This low will drag another cold front across the basin W of 70W through the remainder of the upcoming weekend. Gale force winds will be possible across the northern waters W of 70W this weekend, with conditions in the wake of the front improving on Monday. An elongated area of low pressure may move into the far SE portion of the basin for the start of next week. $$ ERA