000 AXNT20 KNHC 132330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will enter the Gulf Thursday, then move SE and clear the basin Fri. In the wake of this front, gale force winds are forecast over portions of the SW Gulf on Friday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 48W from 19N southward is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-20N between 42W-51W. A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are present near the wave axis in the SW Caribbean, and over land between N Colombia and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from there to 05N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N-08N between 16W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 13/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Keys near 25N81W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W to western Guatemala near 16N91W. A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf from 18N93W to 26N97W. ASCAT from late Wed morning showed near gale NW winds west of the surface trough and south of 22N. Fresh to strong NE winds are over the southern Gulf to the north of the front, with moderate winds over the NW Gulf. Scattered light to moderate showers are over the NW and west-central Gulf. Isolated showers are near the Florida Keys and South Florida. A 1027 mb high is centered over the Texas/Mexico border near 27N99W. The front from near Florida Bay to the N central Yucatan Peninsula will become stationary this evening, then begin to drift NW-N and gradually dissipate Thu. A weaker cold front will move into the Gulf Thu, then move SE and clear the basin Fri. Weak low pressure is expected to form Thu night or early Fri over the NE Gulf and move slowly NE. In the wake of this front, gale force winds are forecast over portions of the SW Gulf on Friday, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Yet another cold front may move into the western Gulf late Sun through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean and eastern Yucatan Peninsula from 16N-21N between 84W-90W are due to the combination of a surface trough over the NW Caribbean and a cold front that extends over the far SE Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula. Mid to upper-level anti-cyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean. Relatively dry air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the far SW Caribbean and over land from N Colombia to Nicaragua are due to the east Pacific monsoon trough and the tropical wave along 83W. ASCAT from Wed morning showed gentle to moderate trades across the basin. A cold front just NW of the Yucatan Channel will become stationary this evening, then begin to drift NW-N and gradually dissipate Thu. Another cold front will move into the far NW Caribbean late Fri, gradually stalling after reaching eastern Cuba to Nicaragua Sun. The remnants of the front will linger roughly along 80W for the start of next week. The front is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central America this weekend. Fresh to strong N winds will follow this next cold front as it moves across the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, a weak pres gradient across the basin will lead to generally moderate tradewinds. N swell will impact the Atlantic as well as Caribbean passages Fri through the weekend and into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 13/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N66W to 29N71W to 26N77W to Key Largo Florida to 23N85W. Northwest of the cold front, strong to near gale N to NE winds extend to beyond 32N and to near the east coast of Florida. The front will become stationary tonight, then begin to drift northward as it dissipates Thu. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds and large seas will prevail behind the front through tonight, diminishing Thu. A surface trough extends from 25N70W to 30N67W. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 25N-32N between 58W-66W. An upper-level trough is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 21N-29N between 50W-57W. A weak upper-level low near 27N26W is producing scattered moderate rainshowers from 24N-31N between 12W-22W, including over the Canary Islands. Low pressure is forecast to develop near NE Florida by early Fri and move NE through the far NW basin into Sat. This low will drag another cold front across the basin W of 70W through the remainder of the upcoming weekend. Gale force winds are possible across the northern waters W of 70W Sat night and Sun, with conditions in the wake of the front improving Mon. An elongated area of low pressure may move into the waters to the north of the northern Leeward Islands for the start of next week. $$ Hagen