000 AXNT20 KNHC 131118 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 618 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front extends across the basin from 26N82W to 23N87W to 19N93W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds south of 21N and west of 94W, while fresh to strong winds are noted elsewhere over the western Gulf. Seas in the west Gulf are ranging between 15-20 ft. These conditions will continue through early this morning as the front moves away from the area. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. West Atlantic Gale Warning... A strong cold front extends from 31N75W to 27N80W. Gale-force N winds are noted behind the front north of 27N and west of 76W. These conditions will continue through this afternoon following the front as it moves east, with seas will quickly building to near 13 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 46W from 20N southward is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis. There is a large area of scattered moderate convection east of the wave, mainly enhanced by upper-level divergence produced by an upper-level trough in the area. A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Drier air is present near the wave, limiting convection mainly over the Caribbean. The southern portion of the wave is interacting with the EPAC's monsoon trough with scattered moderate convection. The wave is identifiable primarily from the 700 mb trough diagnostics. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb surface low near 12N14W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to a1007 mb surface low near 05N28W to 04N43W. In addition to the convection related to the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N-10N between 20W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A strong cold front extends across the basin from 26N82W to 23N87W to 19N93W. Aside from the area of gale-force winds over the southwest, scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across most of the basin except south of 27N and east of 84W, where light to gentle winds prevail. The front will slow down and stall near the far SE portions of the Gulf today into tonight, then dissipate Thu. Gale force winds and high seas will continue across the SW Gulf this morning before decreasing some this afternoon. Another weaker cold front will move into the Gulf Thu, then clear the basin Fri. Before does, weak low pressure could form Thu night or early Fri over the northeast Gulf. In the wake of this front, gale force winds are likely over portions of the SW Gulf on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends across the northwest Caribbean from 19N80W to 18N88W. Scattered showers are noted in the NW Caribbean, mainly north of 17N and west of 83W. Dry air and subsidence cover most of the remainder of the basin. Trades are moderate in the eastern and central Caribbean, and gentle in the western basin. The cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel this afternoon, then dissipate tonight. Another cold front will move into the far NW Caribbean late Fri, gradually stalling after reaching eastern Cuba to Nicaragua Sun. Fresh to strong N winds may follow this front. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will lead to generally moderate tradewinds. NE swell will impact the Atlantic as well as Caribbean passages Fri into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin. A surface trough extends from 30N71W to 22N73W. To the east, a stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from 32N60W to 27N64W. A surface trough extends from that point to 25N68W. Scattered showers are occurring well east of the front from 23N-31N between 50W-58W in association to an upper-level diffluent flow in the area. Surface ridging prevails across the reminder of the basin, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 37N36W. The cold front will reach a Bermuda to central Bahamas to Florida Straits line by this evening, then stall and dissipate on Thu. Gale force winds are expected offshore the northeast coast of Florida early this morning, with strong to near gale force winds prevailing elsewhere north and west of the front through tonight. Winds will diminish Thu and seas will decay by Fri. Low pressure is forecast to develop near NE Florida by early Fri and move NE through the far NW basin into Sat. This low will drag another cold front across the basin W of 70W through the remainder of the upcoming weekend. $$ ERA