000 AXNT20 KNHC 121042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 542 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front extends over the northwest Gulf from 30N92W to beyond 24N98W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds already occurring north of the front, mainly west of 95W. As the front continues moving southeast, gale force winds and building seas will be following the frontal passage, and these conditions will spread southward through the W Gulf today, then linger over the Bay of Campeche and offshore Veracruz tonight and early Wed. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. West Atlantic Gale Warning... A strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic this evening and extend from 31N75W to 27N80W. Frequent gusts to gale-force is forecast NW of front with seas 9-12 ft. Conditions will persist until Wednesday evening, as the front moves E. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. East Atlantic Gale Warning... A strong pressure gradient between the 1031 mb Azores high at 37N31W and lower pressures over NW Africa is producing gale-force N winds over the Canarias, Tarfaya and Agadir marine areas of MeteoFrance. Scatterometer winds also depicts winds of 35-40 kt near 30N10W. These conditions are expected through early Wed. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 42W and from 19N southward, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails east of the wave axis from 02N-15N between 30W-42W. This convection is being enhanced by upper level diffluence, and an upper level jetstream. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 65W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is noted in the wave environment limiting convection at this time. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 76W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is also present near the wave limiting convection. The wave is identifiable from the 700 mb trough diagnostics. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 03N40W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave described above, no significant convection is noted along the boundaries. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A cold front extends from 30N92W to beyond 24N98W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds prevailing across the eastern half of the basin, while light to gentle winds are noted over the western half, mainly south of the front. The front will race to the SE Gulf by this evening, and clear the basin early Wed. Gale force winds and building seas are following the frontal passage, and these conditions will spread southward through the W Gulf today, then linger over the Bay of Campeche and offshore Veracruz tonight and early Wed. Strong winds Wed will diminish to fresh as the high pressure forcing the front south lifts to the north and east. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu, followed by strong winds and high seas over the SW Gulf Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends from the Atlantic through the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection is prevailing over the SW Caribbean south of 10N due to the EPAC monsoon trough. Scatterometer and buoy observations indicate gentle to moderate tradewinds prevail over the west Caribbean, while moderate easterly winds prevail over the eastern half of the basin. Several weak tropical waves will traverse the Carribbean this week with little influence on the weather. Weak pressure gradient across the basin will lead to generally moderate winds. Northeasterly swell may impact Atlantic waters Fri into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin. A stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from a 1018 mb low near 34N56W southwestward to 25N63W. A surface trough extends from that point to 20N73W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm east of the front. A surface trough extends from 14N49W to 10N50W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across the reminder of the basin, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 37N31W. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast this afternoon, then begin to stall as it passes Bermuda and stretches SW across the Bahamas and Florida Straits on Wed. Behind the front, gale force winds will follow this front off the northeast coast of Florida tonight, with strong to near gale force winds along with higher seas expected through Wed night north and west of the boundary. As the front dissipates late week, winds and seas will also diminish. $$ ERA