000 AXNT20 KNHC 112350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 649 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast this evening, then move southeastward through all but the southeast Gulf by Tue night, and exit the Gulf on Wed. Gale-force N winds are forecast behind the front. These winds will prevail over the west Gulf through Wed morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Atlantic Gale Warning west of 68W... A strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic Tue evening and extend from 31N75W to 27N80W. Frequent gusts to gale force is forecast NW of front with seas 9-12 ft. Conditions will persist until Wed evening, as the front moves E. Atlantic Gale Warning east of 35W... A large pressure gradient between the 1035 mb Azores high at 36N27W and lower pressures over NW Africa is producing gale force N winds over the Tarfaya marine area of MeteoFrance. Scatterometer winds show winds of 35-40 kt near 30N10W. These gale conditions are expected through early Wed. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W from 16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over a large area from 02N-16N between 27W-46W. This convection is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence, and an upper level jetstream. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is present in the vicinity of the wave limiting the convection along its axis. A scatterometer pass indicated surface troughing associated with the wave south of about 12N. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Drier air is present in the central Caribbean near the wave limiting convection. The wave is identifiable from the 700 mb trough diagnostics. Isolated moderate convection is inland over Hispaniola, E Cuba, NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 09N38W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N42W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Widely scattered moderate convection is inland over W Africa from 07N-11N between 08W-12W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak northwest-southeast pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico is producing gentle to moderate SE winds across the Gulf this morning. No significant deep convection is occurring over the area currently. A strong arctic cold front will reach the Texas coast this evening, then move southeastward through all but the southeast Gulf by Tue night, and exit the Gulf on Wed. Gale force northerly winds and large seas will follow the frontal passage, beginning across the NW Gulf overnight, spreading strong gales southward through much of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche Tue into early Wed, before decreasing for the latter half of the week. The next front is forecast to enter the the Gulf by Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage to NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the front. Scattered moderate convection is also in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Scatterometer and buoy observations indicate gentle to moderate tradewinds south of the front and fresh NE winds north of the front. The trough will gradually dissipate through Wed. High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain a modest pressure gradient across the basin through the remainder of the week. A strong Gulf of Mexico cold front will become stationary across the Yucatan Channel Wed through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A quasi-stationary front over the central Atlantic extends from a 1017 mb low near 34N54W southwestward to 30N57W, where it transitions to a stationary front reaching to 23N65W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. A 1033 mb Azores high is centered near 38N28W. A moderate pressure gradient south of the high is forcing moderate to strong NE tradewinds. Strong NE winds to the northwest of the central Atlantic front will gradually decrease by Tue. High pressure to the north of the front will move quickly east tonight, allowing for another strong cold front to exit the SE U.S. coast Tue evening, then reach from Bermuda to NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits by Wed night. The front will then weaken and eventually dissipate through Fri. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected Tue evening to Wed evening west of the new front. $$ Formosa