000 AXNT20 KNHC 111712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1212 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast this evening, then move southeastward through all but the southeast Gulf by Tue night, and exit the Gulf on Wed. Gale-force N winds are forecast behind the front. These winds will prevail over the west Gulf through Wed morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Gale Warning East of 35W... A large pressure gradient between the 1035 mb Azores high at 36N27W and lower pressures over NW Africa is producing gale force N winds over the Tarfaya marine area of MeteoFrance. Scatterometer winds this morning showed winds of 35-40 kt near 30N10W. These gale conditions are expected through early Wed. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 15N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Drier air is present in the vicinity of the wave limiting the convection along its axis. A scatterometer pass this morning indicated surface troughing associated with the wave south of about 12N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 19N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Drier air is present in the central Caribbean near the wave limiting convection. The wave is only identifiable from the 700 mb trough diagnostics. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 06N55W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N-12N between 28W-46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak northwest-southeast pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico is producing gentle to moderate SE winds across the Gulf this morning. No significant deep convection is occurring over the area currently. High pressure over the SE U.S. extending weakly SW into the Gulf will shift NE this afternoon and tonight. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast this evening, then move southeastward through all but the southeast Gulf by Tue night, and exit the Gulf on Wed. Gale force northerly winds and large seas will follow the frontal passage, beginning across the NW Gulf overnight, spreading strong gales southward through much of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche Tue into early Wed, before decreasing for the latter half of the week. The next front is forecast to enter the the Gulf by Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A dissipating stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the front. Scattered moderate convection is also observed in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Scatterometer and buoy observations indicate gentle to moderate tradewinds south of the front and fresh NE winds north of the front. The front will meander and gradually dissipated through Wed. High pres N of this front will maintain a modest pressure gradient across the basin through the week. A strong Gulf of Mexico cold front will stall across the Yucatan Channel Wed through Thu. Northerly swell will maintain moderate seas across the Tropical N Atlc waters through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A cold front extends from a 1016 mb low near 35N53W southwestward to 25N64W, where it transitions to a stationary front reaching to Hispaniola. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the front. Scatterometer and buoy observations indicate NE winds north of the front to a strong breeze. A 1035 mb Azores high is centered near 36N27W. A moderate pressure gradient south of the high is forcing moderate to strong NE tradewinds. Strong NE winds to the northwest of the front will gradually decrease by Tue. High pressure to the north of the front will move quickly east today, allowing for another cold front to exit the SE U.S. coast Tue afternoon, then reach from Bermuda to NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits by Wed night. The front will then weaken and eventually dissipate through Fri. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected Tue night and Wed north of the front will gradually veer and diminish through the week. $$ Landsea