716 AXNT20 KNHC 111101 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 601 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast this evening, then move southeastward through all but the southeast Gulf by Tue night, and exit the Gulf on Wed. Gale-force winds are forecast behind the front. These winds will prevail over the west Gulf through Wed morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is present in the vicinity of the wave limiting the convection along its axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 19N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Drier air is present in the eastern Caribbean near the wave limiting convection. Scattered moderate convection is seen inland over NW Venezuela and Colombia. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the SW Caribbean where it meets the EPAC monsoon trough, mainly south of 12N between 80W-83W near the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 05N36W to 06N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N-10N between 22W-48W. An upper level trough from 16N52W to 10N54W is enhancing scattered moderate convection to the north of the ITCZ from 07N-17N between 41W-48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging remains in control across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near the coast of N Carolina 32N80W. In the western Gulf coast from Matamorros, Mexico north to Houston, Texas, overcast cloud deck has develop along the coast extending about 100 nm east of the coast. Scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds across the Straits of Florida and the eastern Gulf, and light southeast flow west of 90W. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast this evening, then move southeastward through all but the southeast Gulf by Tue night, and exit the Gulf on Wed. Gale force northerly winds and large seas follow the frontal passage, in the northwest Gulf overnight, spreading southward through much of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche Tue into early Wed, before decreasing for the latter half of the week as high pressure moves in. The next front is forecast to enter the the Gulf by Thu night, bringing another round of higher winds seas in its wake. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from north of Hispaniola across the Windward Passage 19N73W to 20N83W to the Yucatan Channel near 20N87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm on either side of the boundary, affecting north of Hispaniola, the Windward Passage, eastern Cuba, Cayman Islands and into the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf of Honduras. The presence of much drier air is limiting convection across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. A modest pressure gradient will keep winds at moderate to fresh levels through much of the week. A cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Wed; one tropical wave will cross the western Caribbean through midweek, while another will move west through the Lesser Antilles by Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from a 1014 mb low pressure near 32N56W 25N63W, then transitions to a stationary front to the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 180 nm along and east of the front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 38N28W. Strong NE winds in the wake of a cold front will gradually decrease to fresh by Tue; seas will also decay. High pressure centered to the north will move quickly east today, allowing for another cold front to leave the SE U.S. coast Tue afternoon, then reach a Bermuda to NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits line by Wed night. The front will then weaken and eventually dissipate through Fri. Strong to near gale force northerly winds north of the front will become northeast to east strong winds Thu, then diminish to moderate to fresh winds Fri. $$ MMTorres