000 AXNT20 KNHC 110559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1259 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... a strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Monday night reaching from Panama City, Florida to Tampico, Mexico Tuesday. Gale-force winds are forecast behind the front. These winds will prevail over the west Gulf through Wednesday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen mainly east of the wave axis from 08N-20N between 40W-51W. The convection to the east is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence. There is abundant drier air present west of the wave axis noticeable in the water vapor imagery. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 20N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Drier air is present in the eastern Caribbean limiting convection. Scattered moderate convection is mostly inland, however, over Hispaniola, NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean where it meets the EPAC monsoon trough, mainly south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 05N36W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N between 21W-40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging remains in control across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered over western Atlantic near 31N80W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds across the Straits of Florida, and moderate easterly winds over the remainder of the Gulf. In the far southeastern part and Straits of Florida, fresh east winds continue tonight. These winds will diminish early on Mon. A strong arctic cold front will reach the Texas coast Mon night, The front will begin to weaken as it reaches from the Straits of Florida to along northwest Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula to Bay of Campeche on Wed. In its wake, strong gale force northerly winds and large seas will develop Tue morning in the northwest Gulf and spread southward into the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche through Wed. Winds and seas will decrease from Wed afternoon through Thu. Another cold front will move across the northern and central Gulf Thu through Fri night, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from the Windward Passage 20N73W to 19N76W, then transitions to a stationary front to 19N87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm on either side of the front, affecting eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage, Cayman Islands and into the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf of Honduras. The presence of much drier air is limiting convection across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. High pressure ridging north of the area will weaken and move eastward through the next few days. This will allow for the pressure gradient to slacken allowing for winds to diminish to fresh speeds. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by mid-week, then becoming stationary through Fri. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front will diminish to mainly fresh speeds Wed and become light and variable Thu through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N58W to 24N65W to the Windward Passage near 20N73W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 160 nm east of the front and north of 21N to 31N between 56W-62W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 38N28W. A cold front will become stationary, then gradually weaken and dissipate early this week. Strong winds to the north and west of the front will weaken to fresh speeds on Mon as high pressure builds into the area. The next cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Tue afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wed afternoon, and become stationary from near 28N65W to 25N71W and to eastern Cuba by late Wed night. The front will weaken and eventually dissipate through Fri as a coastal trough sets up offshore northern and central Florida and while high pressure north of the front weakens and shifts eastward. Strong to near gale force northerly winds north of the front will become northeast to east strong winds Thu, then diminish to moderate to fresh winds Fri. $$ MMTorres