000 AXNT20 KNHC 102339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The next cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, extending from 29.5N93W to 26N97W. Gale-force winds are forecast by that time NW of front. These winds will prevail over the west Gulf through Wednesday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 08N-16N between 40W-53W. This convection is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 20N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Drier air is present in the eastern Caribbean limiting convection. Scattered moderate convection is inland, however, over Hispaniola, NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean where it meets the EPAC monsoon trough, mainly south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 05N40W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 21W- 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to build across the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered over S Georgia near 32N84W. To the southwest, a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N97W to 19N94W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds over the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh northeasterly winds across the remainder of the eastern Gulf, while light to moderate easterly winds prevail west of 90W. A strong arctic cold front will reach the Texas coast Mon night, reach from near Panama City, Florida to 25N92W and to near Tampico, Mexico early Tue, then from near Tampa, Florida to 24N89W and to near Veracruz, Mexico Tue night. The front will begin to weaken as it reaches from the Straits of Florida to along northwest Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula to Bay of Campeche on Wed. In its wake, strong gale force northerly winds and large seas will develop Tue morning in the northwest Gulf and spread southward into the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche through Wed. Winds and seas will decrease from Wed afternoon through Thu. Another cold front will move across the northern and central Gulf Thu through Fri night, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from 20N74W to 20N88W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front, affecting eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage, and adjacent waters. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf of Honduras. The high pressure ridge north of the area will weaken and move east, relaxing the pressure gradient, and causing winds to diminish to fresh through early this week. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by mid week, then become stationary through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N60W to 22N70W to E Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 240 nm east of the front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 38N29W. The cold front will stall later today, then gradually weaken and dissipate early this week. Strong winds to the north and west of the front will weaken to fresh later tonight as high pressure builds into the area. The next cold front will exit the SE U.S. coast Tue afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Wed, and from 27N65W to central Cuba by late Thu. $$ Formosa