000 AXNT20 KNHC 101150 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 49W from 14N southward, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are from 09N-16N between 45W-55W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 66W from 18N southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Drier air is present in the eastern Caribbean limiting convection along the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the west Caribbean with axis along 83W from 18N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 240 nm on the east side of the wave south of 12n between the coast of Colombia and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends offshore from the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 10N17W. The ITCZ extends from 10N17W to 04N35W to 05N47W, then resumes west of the wave near 06N52W to 05N56W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is from 01N- 09N between 20W-30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A 1023 mb high continues to build across the Gulf of Mexico behind the cold front. Clear skies prevail in the northern half of the Gulf while overcast mid and high level cloud cover continue along the west Gulf coast into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are present near south of 19N between 92W-95W. No significant convection is noted across much of the basin. Cold front has exit into the NW Caribbean Sea enhancing showers and tstorms in the Yucatan Channel. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front prevailing across the Straits of Florida into the SE Gulf and the Bay of Campeche while light to moderate NE winds prevail in the NW Gulf. Strong NW winds near Veracruz will decrease to fresh by this evening as the high pressure center north of the area weakens and moves east, weakening the pressure gradient. Another cold front will reach the Texas coast Mon night, the move southeast through the Gulf Tue and Tue night, then out of the southeast Gulf by Wed. In its wake, gale force northerly winds and large seas will develop Tue morning in the northwest Gulf and spread southward into the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the basin. Cold front has enter the NW Caribbean Sea tonight with moderate to fresh winds filtering in behind the front in the Yucatan Channel. Front extends from 21N78W near central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen 60 nm in the vicinity of the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trade winds over the eastern and SW Caribbean. Upper- level ridge just to the N of the basin is supporting mid-level subsidence and a dry weather regime over most of the basin. To the SW, the Pacific monsoon trough is along NW Colombia into Panama and into the Pacific waters. Scattered moderate to strong convection is been enhanced by the monsoon trough and the nearby tropical wave just S of 12N between 75W-82W. The high pressure ridge north of the area will weaken and move east, relaxing the pressure gradient, and causing winds to decrease to fresh through early this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings and the tropical wave moving across the basin. A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from a 1004 mb low pressure centered near 34N59W to the eastern Bahamas near 22N72W and continues across Cuba into the NW Caribbean Sea. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen along a line from 22N70W to 26N63W to 31N58W, within 260 nm SE of the front. An upper level low centered near 26N44W with a trough extending SW to 16N58W to the Lesser Antilles is enhancing scattered showers and storms from 22N28N between 40W-48W. Further east, an area of showers and storms is observed from 17N-25N between 24W-36W A cold front from east of Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos Islands and across eastern Cuba will stall just south and east of these points later today, then gradually weaken and dissipate early this week. Strong winds to the north and west of the front will weaken to fresh later today as high pressure builds into the area. The next cold front will exit the SE U.S. coast Tue afternoon. $$ MMTorres