000 AXNT20 KNHC 100554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1254 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 32N63W to the central Bahamas near 23N75W and continues across Cuba. Gale force winds are within 90 nm N of the front. Seas are 13-22 ft. The Gale will last until 10/0600 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the marine zone Agadir for the next 6 hours. Rough to very rough seas are expected. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 47W from 14N southward, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 07N-14N between 46W-50W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 63W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is present in the eastern Caribbean limiting convection along the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the west Caribbean with axis along 82W from 18N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 140 nm on the east side of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends offshore from 11N15W to 10N16W. The ITCZ extends from 10N16W to 05N31W to 07N48W, then resumes west of the wave near 07N50W to 05N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 15W-31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A 1022 mb high centered near southern Mississippi remains in control across the Gulf of Mexico. Cold front extends from Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula with a few scattered showers in the vicinity. Scatterometer data depicts, moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front with the exception of fresh to strong winds south of Veracruz, Mexico. A cold front extending over the far SE Gulf is stalling and will remain over the far SE Gulf Sun and Mon. Gale force NW winds near Veracruz will decrease to strong tonight. A stronger cold front will reach the Texas coast Mon night, then head SE through the Gulf Tue and Tue night. Gale force northerly winds and large seas will follow in the wake of the front over the far western Gulf Tue and Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trade winds over the central and SW Caribbean, except for the NW Caribbean, where light to moderate NE winds are noted. Upper-level ridge just to the N of the basin is supporting mid-level subsidence and a dry weather regime over most of the basin. To the SW, the Pacific monsoon trough is along NW Colombia into Panama and into the Pacific waters. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is been enhanced by the monsoon trough mainly S of 12N between 77W-83W. Fresh to strong trades are expected tonight over tropical Atlantic waters. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sun through Wed night as the high pressure ridge weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings and the tropical wave moving across the basin. A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 32N63W to the central Bahamas near 23N75W and continues across Cuba into the SW Gulf. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 300 nm SE of the front from 59W-72W. A cold front extending from 31N65W to 24N72W to 23N80W will stall from the Windward Passage to near 31N60W Sun night, then weaken and dissipate by Tue morning. Gale force winds behind the front to the north and east of the Bahamas will diminish to strong speeds overnight. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Tue evening. $$ MMTorres