000 AXNT20 KNHC 092351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale warning... As of 09/2100 UTC a cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 23.5N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 23N88W to the SE Bay of Campeche near 18N91W. Gale force NW winds are over the western Bay of Campeche S of 20N W of 94.5W. SEAS are 10-13 ft. The Gale will last for a few more hours until 10/0000 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... As of 09/2100 UTC a cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N66W to 25N74W to the straits of Florida near 23.5N80W. Gale force winds are within 90 nm N of the front E of front. Seas are 13-22 ft. The Gale will last until 10/0600 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the marine zone Agadir for the next 06 hours. Rough to very rough seas are expected. Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 48W from 12N southward, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 46W-50W. A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean with axis along 63W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW satellite imagery depicts abundant moisture in the vicinity of the wave. Isolated moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-18N between 57W-63W. A tropical wave is over the west Caribbean with axis along 81W from 20N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over E Cuba, Jamaica, the Gulf of Honduras, and over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 08N13W to 06N30W to 06N40W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 15W-39W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A 1022 mb high is centered near Tampico Mexico at 22N98W. Scatterometer data depicts, outside the gale area, moderate to fresh northerly winds over the basin. The cold front will stall over the far southeastern Gulf Sun and Mon. Gale force NW winds near Veracruz will decrease to strong tonight. Another cold front will reach the Texas coast Mon night, then move through the Gulf through Tuesday. Gale force northerly winds and large seas will follow for the far western Gulf Tue and Wed in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean, except for the NW Caribbean, where light to moderate NE winds were are noted. Water vapor imagery shows and upper-level ridge just to the N of the basin is supporting mid- level subsidence and a dry weather regime over most of the basin. To the SW, the Pacific monsoon trough is along NW Colombia into Panama and into the Pacific waters. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is been enhanced by the monsoon trough mainly S of 11N between 77W-83W. A pre-frontal trough extends across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel with scattered showers. Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through tonight as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sun through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings and the tropical wave moving across the basin. As of 09/2100 UTC a cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N66W to 25N74W to the straits of Florida near 23.5N80W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm SE of the front E of 75W. A 1033 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 37N28W. The western Atlantic cold front will stall over the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Gale force winds behind the front to the north and east of the Bahamas will diminish to strong speeds by Sun. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Tue evening. $$ Formosa