000 AXNT20 KNHC 081756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front off the coast of northeast Florida will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, and from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front from the northern Bahamas northeastward Sat. The forecast calls for winds 30-40 kt with seas building up to 14 feet. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the region Sun and Sun evening. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the marine zone Agadir through the next 24 hours. Rough seas, increasing to locally very rough seas in the southern part are also expected in the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 33W from 03N-14N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 04N-11N between 24N-33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is W of the wave axis from 02N-10N between 27W- 44W. A tropical wave with axis along 54W from 04N-15N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well defined in the TPW animation. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean with axis along 74W and S of 19N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean with axis along 83W S of 17N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-17N between 81W-88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N32W, then resumes west of a wave near 06N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is from 06N-14N between 44W- 50W and from 06N-12N between 57W-61W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from St Augustine Florida near 30N81W to 27N90W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25N96W to N of Tampico Mexico near 22N97W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N95W to 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the trough from 19N-21N between 91W-94W. ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong north winds behind the front. A cold front currently over the northern Gulf will continue A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to 24N70W. Scattered moderate convection is 24N-31N between 59W-65W. This feature could be the reflection of an upper-level trough crossing the area. Farther east, another surface trough extends from 29N37W to 22N36W. Scattered showers are near the trough that is associated with an upper-level low. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a paired high pressure located in the vicinity of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ/Monsoon trough is producing a belt of moderate trade winds, particularly between 07N-22N. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds.moving south, bringing strong winds and building seas in its wake. By this afternoon, the front will extend from near Fort Myers Florida to Veracruz Mexico. Near gale force N winds are expected off the coast of Mexico this afternoon through Sat night. Mon night, a stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast. Gale force winds are expected over the far western Gulf Tue into Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate trade winds across the east-central Caribbean and fresh to strong in the central Caribbean north of Colombia, with light NE winds elsewhere. Water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air present across northern half of the region from the Lesser Antilles west to the Yucatan Channel. Isolated moderate convection is near Barbados. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through Sat as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings, and the two tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front extends from 32N76W to St Augustine Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N between 72W-81W. Further E, an upper level trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 27N-32N between 59W-63W. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N39W to 23N39W producing a wind shift. A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N22W. A cold front off the coast of northeast Florida will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Sat morning, then slow down and begin to stall over the Florida Straits and central Bahamas on Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front to the north and east of the Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. Looking ahead, a stronger front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. $$ Formosa