000 AXNT20 KNHC 081145 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Fri morning, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, and from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front from the northern Bahamas northeastward Fri night and Sat. The forecast calls for winds 25- 35 kt with seas building up to 13 feet. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the marine zone Agadir through the next 24 hours. Rough seas, increasing to locally very rough seas in the southern part are also expected in the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 30W from 02N-14N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-10N between 27W-31W mainly west of the wave axis. A tropical wave with axis along 51W from 03N-15N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms extend about 180 to 200 nm from the wave axis. Scatterometer data from earlier today shows very well the wave axis with fresh to strong winds east of the wave, specifically from 09N-13N between 48W-52W. This wave is well defined in the TPW animation also. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 74W and S of 19N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted along the wave axis at this time. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis along 82W S of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis and mainly S of 11N W of 80W to the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N27W, then resumes west of the wave near 05N34W to 04N49W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 04N-10N between 23W-27W and from 02N-08N between 35W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front enters the northern Gulf of Mexico near the coast of the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to the central Gulf to near Tampico 24N97W. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the boundary across the Gulf. To the southwest, a surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 23N96W to 19N94W. A few showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the trough and near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from 19N-20N between 91W-92W. ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong north winds behind the front from 27N-29N between 91W-97W. A cold front currently over the northern Gulf will continue moving south, bringing strong winds and building seas in its wake. By this afternoon, the front will extend from near Fort Myers Florida to Veracruz Mexico. Near gale force N winds are expected off the coast of Mexico this afternoon through Sat night. Mon night, a stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast. ale force winds are expected W of 94W Tue into Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate trade winds across the east-central Caribbean and fresh to strong in the central Caribbean north of Colombia, with light NE winds elsewhere. Water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air present across northern half of the region from the Lesser Antilles west to the Yucatan Channel, therefore, limited convection is noted in the Windward Passage and near the Cayman Island. South of 14N, some scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the SW Caribbean Sea near the Pacific monsoon trough and the tropical waves. Scattered showers are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through Sat as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings currently in effect and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to 24N70W. Scattered moderate convection is 24N-31N between 59W-65W. This feature could be the reflection of an upper-level trough crossing the area. Farther east, another surface trough extends from 29N37W to 22N36W. Scattered showers are near the trough that is associated with an upper-level low. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a paired high pressure located in the vicinity of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ/Monsoon trough is producing a belt of moderate trade winds, particularly between 07N-22N. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early this morning, reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Sat morning, then slow down and begin to stall over the Florida Straits and Central Bahamas on Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front to the north and east of the Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. $$ MMTorres