000 AXNT20 KNHC 080659 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0546 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Fri morning, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, and from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front from the northern Bahamas northeastward Fri night and Sat. The forecast calls for winds 25- 35 kt with seas building up to 13 feet. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the marine zone Agadir through the next 24 hours. Rough seas, increasing to locally very rough seas in the southern part are also expected in the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 28W from 03N-14N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-11N between 26W-31W. A tropical wave with axis along 51W from 03N-15N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-15N between 47W-52W. Latest scatterometer data depicts very well the wave axis with fresh to strong winds east of the wave axis from 09N-13N between 48W-52W. This wave is well defined in the TPW animation also. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 73W and S of 19N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted along the wave axis at this time. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis along 81W S of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis and mainly S of 12N W of 80W to the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N63W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N26W, then resumes west of the wave near 05N31W to 04N48W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 05N-10N between 22W-26W and from 02N- 08N between 32W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the Western Atlantic and extends into the Gulf of Mexico, producing mainly an easterly light to gentle winds. A cold front enters the Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Louisiana near 29N91W to Deep South Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers and tstorms are around 100 to 120 nm southeast of the front from 26N-29N between the FL Panhandle west of 85W to 97W. To the southwest, a surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 23N96W to 19N94W. A few showers are in the vicinity of the trough and near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong north winds behind the front from 27N- 29N between 91W- 97W. A cold front in the northern Gulf will be followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will extend from Tampa to Veracruz, Mexico Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected W of the front off the Mexican coast Fri through Sat night. The front will stall and weaken over the SE and S central Gulf through Sun as surface ridging builds across the basin through Mon. Looking ahead, a stronger front will blast southeastward from the Texas coast Mon night. Gale force winds will affect most of the Gulf W of 94W Tue and Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate trade winds across the east-central Caribbean and fresh to strong in the central Caribbean north of Colombia, with light NE winds elsewhere. Water vapor imagery show abundant dry air present across northern half of the region from the Lesser Antilles west to the Yucatan Channel, therefore, limited convection is noted across the region. South of 14N, some scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the SW Caribbean Sea near the Pacific monsoon trough and the tropical waves. Scattered showers are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through Sat as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Seas are forecast to build up to 9 or 10 ft. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat into Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings currently in effect and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to 24N70W. Scattered moderate convection is 22N-31N between 60W-68W. This feature could be the reflection of an upper-level trough crossing the area. Farther east, another surface trough extends from 29N36W to 22N35W. Scattered showers are near the trough that is associated with an upper-level low. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a paired high pressure located in the vicinity of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ/Monsoon trough is producing a belt of fresh to locally strong trade winds, particularly between 09N-22N. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Fri morning, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, and from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front from the northern Bahamas northeastward Fri night and Sat. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. $$ MMTorres