000 AXNT20 KNHC 072340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Fri morning, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, and from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front and NE of the NW Bahamas Fri night and Sat. Currently, the forecast calls for winds in the 30-40 kt range with seas building up to 12 ft. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers SFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the marine zone Agadir through the next 24 hours. Rough seas, increasing to locally very rough seas in the southern part are also expected in the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 28W from 03N-14N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-12N between 23W-35W. A tropical wave with axis along 50W from 05N-16N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-15N between 47W-52W. Latest scatterometer data depicts very well the wave axis. This wave is well defined in the TPW animation also. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 73W and S of 20N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis along 81W S of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis and mainly S of 12N W of 80W to the coast of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 07N26W. The ITCZ begins E of the tropical wave near 07N29W to 04N39W to 07N48W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-10N between 32W- 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb surface high centered over the eastern coast of Mexico near 22N98W. High pressure of 1019 mb centered over the Carolinas dominates the SE CONUS and the Gulf of Mexico, producing mainly E to SE gentle to moderate winds. To the southwest, a surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 22N94W to 19N94W. A few showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A cold front moving into the northern Gulf tonight will be followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will extend from Tampa to Veracruz, Mexico Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected W of the front off the Mexican coast Fri through Sat night. The front will stall and weaken over the SE and S central Gulf through Sun as surface ridging builds across the basin through Mon. Looking ahead, a stronger front will blast southeastward from the Texas coast Mon night. Gale force winds will affect most of the Gulf W of 94W Tue and Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, with mainly moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical Atlantic waters and across the south- central Caribbean through Sat as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Seas are forecast to build up to 9 or 10 ft. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat into Mon. Scattered showers embedded in the trade wind flow are noted across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings currently in effect and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N69W to 26N72W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 25N between 63W-71W. This feature could be the reflection of an upper-level trough crossing the area. Farther east, another surface trough extends from 30N34W to 26N34W. Scattered showers are near the trough that is associated with an upper-level low. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located just W of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ/Monsoon trough is producing a belt of fresh to locally strong trade winds, particularly between 12N-18N. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Fri morning, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, and from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front from the northern Bahamas northeastward Fri night and Sat. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. $$ ERA