000 AXNT20 KNHC 071746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1246 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Fri morning, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, and from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front and NE of the NW Bahamas Fri night and Sat. Currently, the forecast calls for winds in the 30-40 kt range with seas building up to 12 ft. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers SFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the marine zone Agadir through the next 24 hours. Rough seas, increasing to locally very rough seas in the southern part are also expected in the area. Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 27W from 03N-14N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N- 10N between 24W-32W. A second tropical wave is near 49W from 05N-16N moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is mainly on the east side of the wave axis from 07N-14N between 43W-49W. A recent scatterometer pass indicates the wind shift associated with the wave axis. This wave is well defined in the TPW animation. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 72W, and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave. Another tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 80W S of 18N moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave axis and mainly S of 12N W of 78W to the coast of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 07N25W. The ITCZ begins E of the tropical wave located near 27W at 07N28W to 05N40W to 07N48W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N- 10N between 32W-36W and from 08N-10N between 55W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1017 mb centered over the Carolinas dominates the SE CONUS and the Gulf of Mexico producing mainly E to SE gentle to moderate winds. A surface trough is located near the Mexican coast and extends from 20N95W to 24N97W. A few showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A cold front moving into the northern Gulf tonight will be followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will extend from Tampa to Veracruz, Mexico Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected west of the front off the Mexican coast Fri through Sat night. The front will stall and weaken across the southeast and south central Gulf through Sun as surface ridging builds across the basin through Mon. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast Mon night, followed by winds to near gale force. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A recent scatterometer pass provides observations of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, with mainly moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in tropical Atlantic waters and across the south-central Caribbean through Sat as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Seas are forecast to build up to 9 or 10 ft. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat into Mon. Scattered showers embedded in the trade wind flow are noted across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Fri morning. A Gale Warning has been issued. Please, see Special Features section for more details. There are two tropical waves between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. See Tropical Waves section for details. A surface trough extends from 31N69W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered moderate convection is N of 26N between 65W and the trough axis. This could be a reflection of an upper-level trough crossing the area. Farther E...there is another trough that runs from 31N34W to 25N4W. Scattered showers are near the trough that is associated with an upper-level low. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located just W of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ/Monsoon trough is producing a belt of fresh to locally strong trade winds, particularly between 12N-18N. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. $$ GR/BZ