000 AXNT20 KNHC 070003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the marine zones Madeira, Canarias, Agadir and Tarfaya through the next 24 hours. Wave heights of 12-16 ft are also expected in the area. Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W from 14N southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 13N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the northern portion of the wave from 05N-13N between 38W-48W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 65W from 15N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave between 60W-70W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains across Africa. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 05N39W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to build across the basin in the wake of a frontal system. At this time, a 1020 mb high is centered over central Mexico near 26N103W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across the basin. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf early on Fri, followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will pass SE of the Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected west of the front off the Mexican coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Fri and Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Relatively dry air covers most of the northern half of the basin. However, over the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough paired with an inverted trough at upper levels are inducing scattered moderate convection south of 14N between 80W- 85W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades prevailing across the western half of the basin, while moderate easterly winds are noted east of 70W. Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in Atlantic waters and the south-central Caribbean through Sat morning as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin and the Gale Warning over the far east Atlantic. A cold front extends along the W Atlantic enters the forecast area near 31N76W to 29N81W with scattered showers. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N71W to 21N72W. A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a pair of 1030 mb and 1031 mb highs centered along 38N. The reflection of an upper level low is analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 33N33W to 24N32W. The next cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Fri, and reach from 31N65W to the Florida Keys on Sat. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds and building seas are expected west of the front over northern waters Fri and Sat. Winds and seas will diminish Sat night through Sun night. $$ ERA