000 AXNT20 KNHC 052328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 628 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning... Gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya, from 06/0000 UTC until 06/1200 UTC. Wave heights of 12-16 ft are also expected in the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 17W from 12N southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 04N to 12N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35/36W from 12N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 480 nm to the east of the tropical wave and within 90 west of the tropical wave from 05N-12N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 12N southward, moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-13N between 49W-64W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 08N-18N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are over Hispaniola and NW Venezuela, but little to no shower activity is seen over the waters of the Caribbean in association with this wave. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 85W extends from the Gulf of Honduras near 16N southward across Central America and into the east Pacific. The tropical wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is along the wave axis over Central America. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is farther E in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough from 05N-13.5N between 77W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 08N27W to 07N34W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N37W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 20W-28W, and from 05N-11N between 41W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from Tallahassee Florida to 25N88W to 20N92W to 17N93W. A dissipating stationary front extends from Daytona Beach to Cedar Key Florida to 29N84W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over portions of the eastern and southern Gulf inside the area bounded by the points 31N84W 28N81W 18N94.5W 22N96.5W 31N84W. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence and upper-level diffluence. The ASCAT pass from late Tuesday morning showed moderate NE winds to the west of the surface trough. Elsewhere, isolated moderate showers are seen off the lower Texas coast. A weak pressure pattern over the basin will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas until late Thu. A cold front will move into the far NW Gulf by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will shift S and reach from the Straits of Florida toward Veracruz Mexico by Sat afternoon. Winds will become strong over the western Gulf behind the front off the Mexican coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Fri through Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air covers most of the northern Caribbean. However, a weak upper-level inverted trough that extends from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua is inducing an isolated tstorm or two over SE Cuba and over water near 18N-20N between 83W-85W. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection south of 13.5N and west of 73W. In the southeast corner of the basin, an approaching tropical wave along 58W is inducing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection south of 11N and east of 63.5W, including Trinidad and NE Venezuela. The ASCAT pass from late Tuesday morning shows strong NE to E trades in the south-central Caribbean from 10N-14N between 73W-78W. A tropical wave containing fresh winds and scattered showers and tstorms will move across the Lesser Antilles tonight and into the E Caribbean on Wed. Strong high pressure will prevail N of the Caribbean through Friday and will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin increasing to near gale force at night along the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N61W to 28N75W to 29N79W, dissipating stationary to Daytona Beach Florida. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 27N-32N between 75W and Florida, enhanced by upper-level divergence. A surface trough is along 70W from 21N-28N. Another surface trough extends from 31N62W to 27N63W to 20N62W. Isolated showers and tstorms are from 20N-23N between 59W-62W. To the east, an upper-level low near 30N31W is inducing scattered showers and tstorms from 27N-31N between 26W-34W. The ASCAT pass from Tuesday morning showed strong trades from 09N-17N between 33W-53W. Strong NE winds were also seen from 17N-23N between 18W-25W. A frontal boundary will meander over the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda through mid week before dissipating. A strong cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast on Fri morning, reach from near Bermuda to south Florida by Fri evening before moving east of the region Sun evening. $$ Hagen