000 AXNT20 KNHC 051748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Mon Nov 05 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: AGADIR and TARFAYA, by METEO-FRANCE, from 06/0000 UTC until 06/1200 UTC. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: the website: www.meteofrance.com/ previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been included in the 05/1200 UTC surface map analysis. The tropical wave is along 15W/16W, from 12N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 08N to 10N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 12N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the east of the tropical wave and within 270 nm to the north of the ITCZ. It is possible that some or most of the precipitation may be more related to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 12N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 60 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 09N to 12N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 05N to 13N between 50W and 61W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the 20N60W 11N68W Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea upper level trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 knots. This wave is moving through the areas of Central America from eastern Honduras to central Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong are within 420 nm to the east of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 05N18W 08N27W 07N33W 05N35W 05N52W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, 260 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 21W eastward; and within 360 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, between 34W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is along 28N/29N between 80W and 84W, in central Florida. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 60 nm to the south of the stationary front, and within 30 nm to the north of the front. off the coast of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is inland within 90 nm to the north of the stationary front, and within 30 nm to the south of the front. A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, into the east central Gulf of Mexico, to the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 25N southward between the surface trough and 95W, and within 100 nm to the east of the surface trough from 26N to 28N. A weak pressure pattern in the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas until late Thursday. A cold front will move into the far NW Gulf by early Friday. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas after the cold front. The front will shift S and reach from the Straits of Florida toward Veracruz Mexico by late Saturday. The wind speeds will become strong in the western Gulf, behind the front, off the Mexican coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz on Friday and Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level inverted trough extends from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia and beyond NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N southward from 76W westward. Fresh to strong trade winds will cause the sea heights to build for the Atlantic Ocean waters, and in parts of the south central Caribbean Sea, as high pressure builds to the north of the area. The trade winds and the sea heights will diminish toward the end of the week. Fresh to strong trade winds also will affect the south central Caribbean Sea through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N61W, to 31N66W. The front becomes stationary, from 31N66W to 27N76W, to the coast of Florida near 29N81W, and across Florida to 28N84W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the north of the front from 70W westward. An upper level trough passes through 32N54W to 20N60W, into the SE Caribbean Sea. One surface trough is along 31N61W 26N64W 20N62W. A second surface trough is along 68W/70W from 23N to 28N. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N31W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N northward between 27W and 34W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 20W and 40W. A surface trough is along 42W/43W from 21N to 27N. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N northward between 38W and 50W. The current frontal boundary will meander in the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda through mid week, before dissipating. A trough will persist from the southern Bahamas to Bermuda, through the week. A strong cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast late on Friday, and reach from Bermuda to south Florida by late Saturday. $$ mt