000 AXNT20 KNHC 051120 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W S of 15N moving W around 20 kt. The wave shows up well in TPW imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N-15N between 25W-40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W S of 12N moving W at 10 kt. This low amplitude wave shows up well in model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-11N between 52W-57W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 09N-21N moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave has weakened significantly over the past 2 days. The wave is entering an area of dry low-mid level air over the Caribbean. There is currently no significant convection associated with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W S of 18N moving W around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 12N-17N between 80W-85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-12N between 75W-81W, where the wave intersects the east Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 07N32W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of west Africa from 02N-13N between 08W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 44W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A quasi-stationary front extends from Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 29N85W. A surface trough is also over the E Gulf from 31N87W to 23N90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-24N between 88W-92W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico from 17N-20N between 92W-94W. ASCAT shows 10-15 kt easterly winds over most of the Gulf. A weak low pressure may briefly form along the quasi-stationary front later today, but the front will gradually dissipate through mid week. This will leave a weak pressure pattern across the basin, supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas into late Thu. A cold front will move into the far northwestern Gulf by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will shift southward and reach from the Straits of Florida toward Veracruz Mexico by late Sat. Winds will reach near gale force over the western Gulf behind the front off the Mexican coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Fri and Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Relatively dry low to mid level air covers much of the Caribbean. An upper-level low is N of the Virgin Islands near 20N61W. This upper-low and a tropical wave along 68W/69W are enhancing scattered showers and tstorms N of the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, scattered showers and tstorms are over the Yucatan Channel. Long-period NE swell continues to subside near Atlantic exposures and passages in the eastern Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic waters east of the basin. Meanwhile, fresh trades will allow for seas to build over the Atlantic waters and over portions of the south central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area. These trades and seas will diminish toward the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from the eastern Atlantic from 32N62W to 30N68W. A stationary front continues from 30N68W to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W Atlantic from 29N-33N between 74W-81W. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N61W to 23N65W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 19N-32N between 58W-65W. Another surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 28N44W to 22N45W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N between 25W-31W. A frontal boundary will meander over the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda through mid week before dissipating. Meanwhile a trough will persist from roughly the southern Bahamas to Bermuda through in the week. A strong cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast late Fri, and reach from Bermuda to south Florida by late Sat. $$ Formosa