000 AXNT20 KNHC 041746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1245 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 27W S of 13N, is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 200 nm of the wave from 04N-10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 54W S of 13N, is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 200 nm of this wave from 07N-11N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 65W S of 20N, is moving W at 10 kt. There is currently no significant convection associated with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 77W S of 18N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Showers are seen along the wave with some isolated thunderstorms off shore from the Colombia/Panama border where the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is helping enhance some of the convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N25W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 06N27W to 04N42W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, from 06N-15N between 20W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front continues to linger across the SE Gulf, passing through SW Florida near 26N82W to the northern Yucatan near 21N89W. A trough is north of the front from 24N86W to 29N86W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Yucatan Passage northward into the east-central Gulf from 20N-26N between 83W-89W. A trough is located in the western Bay of Campeche from 18N94W to 23N97W. Showers and thunderstorms are noted along the south- central region of the Bay of Campeche. Surface high pressure extends across the western Gulf. The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds are in the eastern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the central and western basin. The stationary front will weaken and dissipate through this evening. Remnants of the front will move as a trough across the eastern and central Gulf through Tuesday. High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will shift eastward to the Carolinas and dominate the Gulf waters through Thursday producing mainly an easterly wind flow. The next cold front is forecast to reach the northwest Gulf by Friday followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. An upper level low is off the coast of Nicaragua with isolated thunderstorms are seen along the coast. Isolated thunderstorms are also observed in the Gulf of Honduras. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing some isolated convection across Colombia and Panama, mostly S of 10N between 76W-81W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades north of Colombia with gentle to moderate trades across the rest of the basin. Long period NE swell continues to move into the Atlantic exposures and passages in the eastern Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic waters east of the basin. Although this swell will gradually subside through mid week, fresh trade winds will allow seas to build to 8 ft over Atlantic waters. Trade winds and seas will also increase over portions of the south central Caribbean starting by tonight, as high pressure builds north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues to sweep eastward across the western and central Atlantic, entering the forecast area near 31N67W and stretches westward to 28N75W. The front stalls from 28N75W to the coast of Florida near 27N80W. Showers are noted along the front. A 1017 mb low, in association with an upper level low, is near 27N66W and a trough extends along the low from 22N66W to 30N65W. Scattered moderate convection is east of this trough and upper level low, from 19N-33N between 52W-62W. Another trough is located in the central Atlantic from 20N41W to 29N39W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted 100 nm west of the trough from 27N- 29N. Latest scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh ENE winds north of the cold front in the western Atlantic. The front across the central and western Atlantic will stall and then shift northward today while dissipating. Large long- period northeast swell to the northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside through late today. A weak 1017 mb low centered along 66W will track westward as a trough across the waters east of the Bahamas through mid week. The next cold front is forecast to reach the waters off northeast Florida by Friday night bringing increasing winds and building seas. $$ AKR