000 AXNT20 KNHC 040554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W, from 14N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. This wave just is being included in the surface map analysis at 04/0000 UTC. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave. It is possible that some of the precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 15N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 600 nm E of the tropical wave from the ITCZ to 13N, and within 300 nm W of the tropical wave from the ITCZ to 13N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W, from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the 23N61W Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N to 20N between 57W and 63W. It is more likely that this precipitation may be more related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N southward, moving W 15 knots. This wave is moving through the Windward Passage. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is directly related to this tropical wave. Isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave, more directly related to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is in Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N18W, 05N24W and 05N28W. The ITCZ continues from 05N28W to 05N43W and 06N51W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 360 nm N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 200 nm S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 32N69W, to the NW Bahamas, across the Florida Keys, to the north central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from the north central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula southwestward to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong: to the SE of the front in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico; and from 20N southward in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The current frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate on Monday. Remnants of the front will move as a trough across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. High pressure north of the basin will shift eastward and dominate the Gulf waters through Thursday, producing mainly an easterly wind flow. The next cold front is forecast to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico by Friday. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Central America and the Caribbean Sea from Panama and Costa Rica northward from 77W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is spread throughout the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Long period NE swell continues to move into the Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages, in the eastern Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters east of the basin. Fresh trade winds will allow the sea heights to build to at least 8 feet in the Atlantic Ocean waters. This swell will subside gradually through mid-week. The trade winds and the sea heights also will increase in parts of the south central Caribbean Sea, starting by late Monday, as high pressure builds to the north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N69W, to the NW Bahamas, across the Florida Keys, to the north central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from the north central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula southwestward to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough is along 77W/78W from 23N in Cuba to 26N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the W of the line that passes through 32N66W to SE Cuba. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N61W, about 390 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 50W and 70W. A surface trough is along 64W/65W, from 23N northward beyond 32N. Precipitation: Scattered strong from 22N to 28N between 54W and 57W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 16N northward between 50W and 63W. Reinforcing high pressure is allowing the previously-stalled stationary front to extend from the NW Bahamas beyond the Florida Keys, to the north central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front is forecast to continue to drift, before dissipating on Monday. Large long-period northeast swell, to the northeast of the Bahamas, will subside gradually though Monday. A surface trough, currently along 64W/65W, will move westward across the waters that are to the east of the Bahamas, through Wednesday. The next cold front is forecast to reach the far NW corner of the area by Friday night, bringing increasing wind speeds and building sea heights. $$ mt