000 AXNT20 KNHC 031739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis of 50W S of 13N is moving W at 15-20 kt. ITCZ related convection is occurring near the wave from 07N-10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 60W S of 19N is moving W at 15 kt. Thunderstorms are within 40 nm along the northern portion of the wave from 16N-18N. Showers are within 60 nm along the wave from 12N- 19N. A central Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 70W S of 20N is moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is currently associated with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 86W S of 18N is moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is currently associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Sierra Leone near 08N13W to near 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 07N49W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 07N51W to the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 05N-10N between 15W-57W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from SW Florida near 26N81W to the Yucatan near 21N90W to the eastern Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Showers are seen along the front with scattered thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche within 50 nm north of the front from 19N-21N. A trough is analyzed in the western Bay of Campeche from 20N95W to 23N98W. Surface ridging extends across the central and western Gulf from a 1027 mb high near 34N88W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds west of the stationary front in the Bay of Campeche, S of 22N between 91W- 96W. Gentle to moderate north-northeast winds are observed in the rest of the basin. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas persist over the southern Gulf this morning near a stationary front extending from southwest Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Winds and seas will diminish through Monday as the front weakens and high pressure north of the basin shifts east, allowing gentle to light breezes and slight seas across the basin by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A small upper level low continues to linger across the NW Caribbean. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the low from 17N-22N between 82W-88W. A small area of scattered moderate convection is seen in the SW Caribbean enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 12N between 76W-84W. Troughing from an upper level low in the central Atlantic stretches into the NE basin which is firing off scattered moderate convection across the Leeward Islands from 16N-18N between 61W-64W. Scattered showers are also seen across the USVI and Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the central basin with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Long period NE swell continues to move into the Atlantic exposures and passages in the eastern Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic waters east of the basin. Although this swell will gradually subside through mid-week, fresh trade winds will allow seas to build to at least 8 ft over Atlantic waters. Trade winds and seas will also increase over portions of the south central Caribbean starting by late Monday, as high pressure builds north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is pushing across the western Atlantic waters, entering the area near 31N72W and stretches to 28N78W. The front stalls from 28N78W and extends westward to south- central Florida near 27N80W with showers along the boundary. A trough continues to linger around the Bahamas from 23N77W to 28N75W with no significant convection associated with it. An upper level low is located in the central Atlantic near 24N62W, with a surface trough associated with it extending from 21N64W to 35N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of this trough from 20N-30N between 55W-61W. Another upper level low in the eastern Atlantic near 34N29W has a surface trough associated with it. This trough is analyzed from 22N34W to 31N29W. Scattered showers affiliated with this upper low and trough are noted from 19N-37N between 27W- 36W. Surface ridging extends across the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh east-northeast winds off the northern and central Florida coast, N of 27N and W of 76W. Reinforcing high pressure is allowing a front previously stalled to start moving slightly southward this morning. The front will continue drifting before dissipating by early in the week. Large long-period northeast swell to the northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside though Monday. A surface trough currently located east of area along 64W, will track westward across the waters east of the Bahamas through mid week. $$ AKR