000 AXNT20 KNHC 031158 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1140 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 12N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 900 nm E of the tropical wave from the ITCZ to 10N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 19N southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N to 20N between 52W and 61W. It is more likely that this precipitation may be more related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow that is associated with the 22N61W cyclonic circulation center. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 19N southward, moving W 5 knots. The wave is moving toward the eastern sections of Hispaniola. The wave is moving through the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the 22N61W Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. This wave is moving through the area of an upper level trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N northward from 75W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 09N13W, to 07N21W and 07N30W. The ITCZ continues from 07N30W to 07N54W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is: within 180 nm N of the monsoon trough between 17W and 22W; within 900 nm E of the 47W/48W tropical wave from the ITCZ to 10N; within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 13W and 33W; and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 45W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through 32N74W to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico along the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong: to the SE of the front in the Gulf of Mexico; and from 20N southward in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas persist over the southern Gulf this morning near a stationary front reaching from southwest Florida to northwest Yucatan. Winds and seas will diminish through Mon as the front weakens and high pressure north of the basin shifts east, allowing gentle to light breezes and slight seas across the basin by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, extending from Cuba to southern sections of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N northward from 78W westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia and beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from 12N southward from 76W westward. Long period NE swell continues to move into the Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages, in the eastern Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters east of the basin. Fresh trade winds will allow the sea heights to build to at least 8 feet in the Atlantic Ocean waters. This swell will subside gradually through mid-week. Trade winds and sea heights also will increase in parts of the south central Caribbean Sea, starting by late Monday, as high pressure builds to the north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N74W to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico along the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the W of the line that passes through 32N70W to the coast of Florida near 26N80W. A surface trough is about 240 nm to the SE of the stationary front. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from the Bahamas to 30N from 70W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N61W, about 360 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 50W and 70W. A surface trough is along 62W/63W, from 22N to 32N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N to 30N between 49W and 63W. Reinforcing high pressure is allowing the previously-stalled stationary front to start to move southward, slightly, through today. The front is forecast to dissipate early in the week. Large long-period northeast swell, to the northeast of the Bahamas, will subside gradually though Monday. A surface trough, currently located E of the area roughly along 62W/63W, will move westward across the waters that are to the east of the Bahamas, through Wednesday. $$ mt